NBA games

PHX @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
105–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX20332725105
TOR27332626112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 30 4 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 19 14 6
Josh Okogie S 24 10 7 2
Eric Gordon S 34 10 1 1
Keita Bates-Diop 13 9 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 23 9 6 4
Devin Booker S 33 8 5 5
Chimezie Metu 15 5 2 0
Drew Eubanks 18 4 4 1
Yuta Watanabe 16 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 38 23 7 4
Pascal Siakam S 36 22 9 3
Jakob Poeltl S 30 17 4 1
Precious Achiuwa 18 14 10 1
Gary Trent Jr. 25 13 5 2
OG Anunoby S 34 13 3 1
Dennis Schroder S 34 8 6 12
Malachi Flynn 14 2 5 1
Jalen McDaniels 9 0 0 0
Chris Boucher 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Okogie · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Josh Okogie makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
14%
2 Devin Booker PHX
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 OG Anunoby TOR
8%
9 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
7%
10 Josh Okogie PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.9 6.8 6.9
2 Devin Booker PHX 28.1 5.2 8.8
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.3 7.0 5.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.3 7.4 5.4
5 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.4 3.1 5.2
6 OG Anunoby TOR 16.1 4.2 2.7
7 Eric Gordon PHX 15.8 2.9 3.7
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.3 10.0 3.6
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.0 8.2 3.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.4 2.1 1.3
11 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.9 2.3 1.7
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 6.7 4.9 2.1
13 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 3.5 0.7
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.4 3.8 1.1
15 Saben Lee PHX 6.1 1.6 2.0
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.0 3.9 1.2
17 Josh Okogie PHX 5.3 2.8 1.2
18 Yuta Watanabe PHX 5.3 2.4 1.1
19 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.2 2.8 1.7
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.8 1.4 0.6
21 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.5 2.2 0.5
22 Gradey Dick TOR 3.5 0.9 1.0
23 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.3 1.5 0.6
24 Bol Bol PHX 2.5 1.1 0.4
25 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.3 1.4 0.6
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.9 2.3 0.3
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.8 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.