NBA games

WSH @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
120–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH26303331120
ORL31353637139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ORL
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 35 23 3 6
Deni Avdija S 28 22 4 5
Jordan Poole S 26 19 5 2
Corey Kispert 20 13 1 2
Eugene Omoruyi 10 10 1 1
Tyus Jones S 21 7 3 4
Bilal Coulibaly 25 7 5 0
Danilo Gallinari 12 6 1 0
Landry Shamet 18 5 1 1
Jared Butler 5 4 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 31 31 6 3
Cole Anthony 26 25 6 5
Jalen Suggs S 29 22 3 3
Joe Ingles 20 12 4 6
Moritz Wagner 19 11 4 1
Caleb Houstan 10 9 3 1
Gary Harris 19 8 2 4
Goga Bitadze S 24 8 7 2
Anthony Black S 27 7 5 3
Paolo Banchero S 27 6 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes 15-foot two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Anthony Black ORL
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
41%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.7 7.1 4.7
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.4 5.8 5.8
3 Franz Wagner ORL 22.4 6.2 3.8
4 Jordan Poole WSH 17.7 3.5 3.7
5 Cole Anthony ORL 17.0 5.1 4.8
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 15.5 3.7 3.3
7 Deni Avdija WSH 12.5 5.4 3.5
8 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.4 4.8 1.9
9 Tyus Jones WSH 12.1 3.3 4.1
10 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.9 7.8 1.4
11 Corey Kispert WSH 10.4 2.9 1.7
12 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.0 3.7 1.9
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.4 7.7 1.9
14 Gary Harris ORL 8.0 2.3 1.9
15 Landry Shamet WSH 7.8 1.8 1.2
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.5 3.1 1.5
17 Joe Ingles ORL 6.2 2.7 3.5
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.0 4.9 0.6
19 Anthony Black ORL 4.9 2.4 1.5
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.7 1.9 0.8
21 Mike Muscala WSH 3.9 2.6 0.8
22 Jared Butler WSH 3.6 1.5 1.3
23 Johnny Davis WSH 3.3 1.6 0.6
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.3 1.3 0.8
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.2 1.6 0.6
26 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.4 1.8 0.7
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.1 0.6
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 0.9 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.