NBA games

LAL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
133–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL38273632133
DET24242831107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home DET
76% 24%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 34 35 4 9
Anthony Davis S 29 28 16 4
LeBron James S 29 25 8 3
Christian Wood 25 12 9 0
Jalen Hood-Schifino 11 10 1 1
Taurean Prince S 23 9 1 1
Austin Reaves 24 6 3 4
Max Christie S 22 5 2 2
D'Moi Hodge 5 3 0 0
Alex Fudge 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 23 15 4 5
Isaiah Livers 22 14 3 2
Isaiah Stewart S 25 12 3 0
Ausar Thompson S 21 12 6 0
Marcus Sasser 28 9 1 8
Stanley Umude 20 8 5 2
Jaden Ivey S 19 7 1 3
Killian Hayes 22 7 1 8
Jalen Duren S 18 6 7 0
Alec Burks 10 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Stewart · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Isaiah Stewart makes 28-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
10%
3 LeBron James LAL
9%
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
6 Jalen Duren DET
8%
7 Marvin Bagley III DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Jaden Ivey DET
7%
10 Max Christie LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
29%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.6 6.8 7.2
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.7 4.3 7.1
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.4 12.4 3.9
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.5 4.0 6.4
5 Austin Reaves LAL 16.8 5.2 6.1
6 Jaden Ivey DET 14.3 3.9 3.6
7 Jalen Duren DET 14.1 10.7 3.4
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.7 10.0 2.6
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.0 6.9 1.6
10 Alec Burks DET 11.3 2.8 2.3
11 Killian Hayes DET 10.4 3.3 3.7
12 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.8 4.8 1.3
13 Taurean Prince LAL 9.7 3.1 1.8
14 Cam Reddish LAL 9.4 2.5 1.3
15 Kevin Knox II DET 8.6 3.6 1.0
16 Isaiah Livers DET 8.5 2.5 1.7
17 Marcus Sasser DET 7.4 2.1 2.5
18 Christian Wood LAL 6.9 5.2 1.1
19 Stanley Umude DET 5.8 2.3 0.8
20 Max Christie LAL 5.7 2.8 1.4
21 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.3 2.8 3.6
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 2.2 0.8
23 James Wiseman DET 4.8 3.1 0.7
24 D'Moi Hodge LAL 3.9 1.6 0.7
25 Alex Fudge LAL 2.9 1.7 0.5
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.7 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.