NBA games

DEN @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
113–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25331936113
LAC28283216104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home LAC
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reggie Jackson S 40 35 5 13
DeAndre Jordan S 34 21 13 5
Justin Holiday S 34 12 6 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 38 12 3 2
Julian Strawther 19 9 3 1
Peyton Watson 24 8 3 1
Zeke Nnaji 12 8 7 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 8 10 3
Christian Braun 12 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 39 31 8 3
Ivica Zubac S 32 23 14 1
Russell Westbrook 27 14 11 3
James Harden S 36 11 2 4
Norman Powell 21 10 2 1
Paul George S 37 6 8 4
Terance Mann S 30 5 3 0
Daniel Theis 12 4 1 1
P.J. Tucker 6 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Reggie Jackson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Reggie Jackson makes 2-foot layup (DeAndre Jordan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
17%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Reggie Jackson DEN
11%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
7 Terance Mann LAC
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Justin Holiday DEN
7%
10 DeAndre Jordan DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
35%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 24.3 6.6 4.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 19.2 5.1 3.2
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 7.2 1.6
4 James Harden LAC 15.9 4.8 6.1
5 Reggie Jackson DEN 14.8 3.6 4.5
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 12.8 2.6 3.8
7 Norman Powell LAC 11.5 2.6 1.5
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 11.4 5.4 4.6
9 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.7 8.6 1.2
10 Christian Braun DEN 9.7 3.4 1.4
11 Xavier Moon LAC 9.6 3.4 2.9
12 Bones Hyland LAC 9.5 2.0 2.4
13 Terance Mann LAC 7.1 3.9 2.1
14 Daniel Theis LAC 5.8 4.2 1.1
15 Julian Strawther DEN 5.3 1.4 1.1
16 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.4 3.4 2.0
17 Justin Holiday DEN 4.2 1.6 0.9
18 Kobe Brown LAC 4.2 2.3 0.7
19 Braxton Key DEN 3.6 2.4 1.1
20 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.6 2.9 0.6
21 Peyton Watson DEN 3.5 2.3 0.8
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.4 0.8
23 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.4 2.1 0.9
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 1.9 0.6
25 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.1 1.3 0.8
26 Amir Coffey LAC 2.5 1.3 0.8
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.8 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.