NBA games

NO @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
112114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO24313324112
UTAH32253126114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home UTAH
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 34 26 4 7
Brandon Ingram S 35 25 4 5
Naji Marshall 28 14 9 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 30 14 13 2
Jordan Hawkins 25 13 5 0
Herbert Jones S 32 10 4 0
Jose Alvarado 14 4 1 2
Larry Nance Jr. 9 3 4 2
Dyson Daniels S 24 2 3 4
Cody Zeller 9 1 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 31 19 5 3
Jordan Clarkson S 32 16 4 10
Simone Fontecchio S 28 14 4 2
Walker Kessler 26 14 8 3
Ochai Agbaji 16 12 0 0
John Collins S 29 12 3 0
Collin Sexton 18 11 2 0
Omer Yurtseven S 22 7 10 2
Talen Horton-Tucker 19 5 3 7
Kelly Olynyk 19 4 4 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"John Collins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
11%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 John Collins UTAH
10%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
10%
6 Omer Yurtseven UTAH
7%
7 Kris Dunn UTAH
7%
8 Dyson Daniels NO
7%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
10 Herbert Jones NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
48%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 26.2 5.0 5.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 25.6 6.6 5.8
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.3 3.7 5.3
4 John Collins UTAH 14.9 8.0 1.3
5 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.7 3.7 2.6
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.6 8.7 2.9
7 Herbert Jones NO 14.0 4.3 3.6
8 Keyonte George UTAH 11.7 3.0 5.9
9 Dyson Daniels NO 11.2 5.6 4.9
10 Collin Sexton UTAH 11.2 3.3 4.0
11 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 9.8 3.4 3.8
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 9.6 8.6 1.0
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 9.3 6.2 4.0
14 Naji Marshall NO 8.8 3.8 2.2
15 Jose Alvarado NO 8.1 2.6 2.2
16 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.7 3.6 1.3
17 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 6.1 2.3 0.9
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 4.7 3.3 0.8
19 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.6 2.7 1.0
20 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.5 2.9 0.7
21 Kris Dunn UTAH 4.0 2.1 1.8
22 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.8 2.1 0.7
23 Cody Zeller NO 3.3 3.8 1.4
24 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.0 0.8 1.3
25 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.2 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.