NBA games

LAL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
94–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL1934271494
PHI32363040138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHI
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 30 18 0 5
Anthony Davis S 32 17 11 2
D'Angelo Russell S 24 12 2 7
Austin Reaves 29 12 2 2
Taurean Prince S 29 11 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 19 7 2 1
Christian Wood 22 6 7 1
Max Christie S 26 6 3 1
D'Moi Hodge 8 3 0 1
Alex Fudge 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 31 3 8
Joel Embiid S 31 30 11 11
Marcus Morris Sr. 20 16 1 0
Patrick Beverley 24 12 6 3
Nicolas Batum S 29 10 7 4
Paul Reed 17 9 3 0
De'Anthony Melton S 25 9 0 2
Tobias Harris S 23 8 5 0
Mo Bamba 5 7 3 0
Furkan Korkmaz 5 5 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Christie · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Max Christie makes dunk (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
19%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
12%
4 De'Anthony Melton PHI
11%
5 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
6 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
7 D'Angelo Russell LAL
7%
8 Max Christie LAL
7%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
3%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.8 11.2 7.1
2 LeBron James LAL 26.5 7.4 7.1
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.3 4.8 6.4
4 Anthony Davis LAL 22.3 12.0 3.9
5 Tobias Harris PHI 19.9 6.4 3.3
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.1 4.1 6.2
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.0 5.3 6.1
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 14.8 4.6 3.3
9 Taurean Prince LAL 9.1 3.0 1.8
10 Nicolas Batum PHI 7.3 3.9 1.5
11 Christian Wood LAL 6.4 5.0 1.1
12 Robert Covington PHI 5.9 3.7 1.0
13 Max Christie LAL 5.8 3.0 1.2
14 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.8 3.6 4.0
15 Paul Reed PHI 5.1 3.9 0.8
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.6 2.2 0.8
17 Patrick Beverley PHI 3.8 2.2 1.6
18 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 3.5 1.7 0.6
19 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.7 0.9 0.4
20 KJ Martin PHI 2.5 1.3 0.5
21 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.5 0.9 0.5
22 Mo Bamba PHI 2.1 1.7 0.3
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.7 0.6 0.7
24 Alex Fudge LAL 1.7 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.