NBA games

POR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR30351831114
IND34262327110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home IND
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 38 34 7 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 36 24 2 7
Deandre Ayton S 38 22 13 1
Scoot Henderson 22 13 3 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 11 5 6
Toumani Camara S 17 5 2 0
Duop Reath 10 4 2 1
Jabari Walker 15 1 3 0
Matisse Thybulle 29 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 36 33 2 9
Myles Turner S 27 11 8 0
Bruce Brown S 33 11 3 3
Bennedict Mathurin 22 11 4 0
Jalen Smith 12 9 5 1
Obi Toppin S 19 9 4 2
Buddy Hield S 24 9 1 3
Andrew Nembhard 22 8 3 3
Aaron Nesmith 25 7 3 0
Isaiah Jackson 10 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Obi Toppin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Malcolm Brogdon POR
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Obi Toppin IND
10%
6 Jerami Grant POR
9%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Bruce Brown IND
8%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
29%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 28.3 4.1 10.9
2 Jerami Grant POR 24.8 4.2 3.3
3 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.8 4.8 6.4
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.8 5.4 3.6
5 Myles Turner IND 18.3 7.1 1.9
6 Deandre Ayton POR 15.3 10.2 2.0
7 Buddy Hield IND 14.8 3.5 2.3
8 Obi Toppin IND 14.7 3.4 1.9
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.1 4.6 2.1
10 Scoot Henderson POR 13.4 2.8 4.9
11 Bruce Brown IND 11.4 4.3 3.3
12 Skylar Mays POR 10.7 2.7 5.3
13 Jalen Smith IND 8.9 5.3 1.1
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.9 2.6 1.1
15 Jabari Walker POR 8.8 4.8 1.2
16 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.6 2.1 3.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 8.3 2.7 1.7
18 Toumani Camara POR 8.0 4.3 1.5
19 Duop Reath POR 6.4 2.5 1.3
20 T.J. McConnell IND 6.0 2.3 3.2
21 Ben Sheppard IND 6.0 1.8 1.3
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 5.0 4.7 0.8
23 Jarace Walker IND 4.7 3.1 1.3
24 Jordan Nwora IND 4.7 2.0 0.9
25 Moses Brown POR 2.7 3.0 0.3
26 Kris Murray POR 2.4 1.0 0.5
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.2 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.