NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
126–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH31263732126
DET27272924107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 35 32 12 8
Deni Avdija S 26 16 6 5
Danilo Gallinari 19 16 2 2
Landry Shamet 22 12 2 4
Tyus Jones S 26 12 3 4
Jordan Poole S 25 10 0 3
Daniel Gafford S 27 10 9 2
Corey Kispert 19 8 5 1
Bilal Coulibaly 28 5 4 0
Eugene Omoruyi 2 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 26 5 7
Ausar Thompson S 28 16 4 2
Jaden Ivey S 33 15 7 7
Jalen Duren S 33 12 14 3
Isaiah Livers 23 8 1 3
Alec Burks 13 8 0 1
James Wiseman 9 8 4 0
Isaiah Stewart S 29 7 8 0
Marcus Sasser 22 7 1 3
Stanley Umude 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
5 Marvin Bagley III DET
8%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Corey Kispert WSH
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
50%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.2 4.4 7.9
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.7 5.6 5.8
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.5 3.7 4.3
4 Jalen Duren DET 14.4 11.3 3.2
5 Jaden Ivey DET 14.1 3.6 3.3
6 Ausar Thompson DET 13.7 10.9 2.9
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.7 6.8 1.8
8 Tyus Jones WSH 12.2 3.4 4.5
9 Deni Avdija WSH 12.1 5.2 3.7
10 Alec Burks DET 11.8 3.3 2.3
11 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 2.9 2.1
12 Killian Hayes DET 11.4 3.4 4.6
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.9 5.4 1.6
14 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.7 3.8 2.0
15 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.5 8.0 1.5
16 Kevin Knox II DET 9.6 4.1 1.0
17 Marcus Sasser DET 9.2 2.5 2.6
18 Landry Shamet WSH 8.3 1.9 1.2
19 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.0 3.3 1.7
20 Stanley Umude DET 6.2 2.5 0.8
21 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 5.7 2.1 1.0
22 Mike Muscala WSH 5.2 3.0 1.2
23 Jared Butler WSH 4.0 1.6 1.6
24 Johnny Davis WSH 3.8 1.8 0.7
25 James Wiseman DET 3.7 2.6 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.6 2.1 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.