NBA games

SA @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
120–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35252436120
DEN39333525132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home DEN
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 25 22 11 2
Devin Vassell 26 19 1 3
Malaki Branham S 25 15 2 3
Julian Champagnie 17 13 1 1
Tre Jones 22 10 4 6
Keldon Johnson S 31 10 1 2
Zach Collins S 21 9 4 3
Charles Bassey 15 9 6 2
Cedi Osman 16 7 3 3
Jeremy Sochan S 17 4 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 34 39 11 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 25 7 2
Reggie Jackson S 28 20 7 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 16 1 6
Julian Strawther 19 10 1 4
DeAndre Jordan 12 6 6 1
Justin Holiday S 27 5 2 3
Christian Braun 25 5 4 4
Peyton Watson 22 4 4 2
Jay Huff 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot step back jumpshot (Justin Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Zach Collins SA
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Reggie Jackson DEN
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
85%
Jumper
8%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.5 12.9 10.2
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.9 7.3 1.8
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.3 10.5 3.3
4 Keldon Johnson SA 18.8 6.5 4.6
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.8 3.6 3.0
6 Zach Collins SA 16.3 6.2 3.5
7 Reggie Jackson DEN 14.7 3.3 4.4
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.0 5.5 3.9
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 13.0 2.5 3.7
10 Christian Braun DEN 9.9 3.6 1.6
11 Tre Jones SA 8.9 2.9 4.3
12 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 1.8 2.1
13 Doug McDermott SA 6.6 1.7 2.1
14 Cedi Osman SA 6.5 2.3 1.1
15 Julian Strawther DEN 5.1 1.7 1.1
16 Justin Holiday DEN 4.5 1.5 1.0
17 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.2 2.2 0.8
18 Julian Champagnie SA 3.9 1.8 0.8
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 2.4 2.4
20 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.7 1.4 1.1
21 Peyton Watson DEN 3.7 2.5 0.9
22 Charles Bassey SA 3.6 3.8 1.0
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.1 0.8
24 Devonte' Graham SA 3.3 1.2 1.3
25 Braxton Key DEN 3.0 1.9 1.0
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.0 1.1 0.7
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.