NBA games

TOR @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
102–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR28242030102
CLE25173231105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home CLE
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 38 18 8 6
Jakob Poeltl S 35 18 13 2
Scottie Barnes S 33 15 8 3
Dennis Schroder S 29 15 2 4
Gary Trent Jr. 26 13 1 0
OG Anunoby S 34 11 7 1
Chris Boucher 10 5 4 0
Precious Achiuwa 13 4 2 1
Malachi Flynn 17 3 4 0
Otto Porter Jr. 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 41 24 2 8
Max Strus S 37 20 11 5
Jarrett Allen S 27 18 4 3
Evan Mobley S 38 12 14 1
Donovan Mitchell S 34 10 5 4
Georges Niang 23 8 6 3
Caris LeVert 22 7 3 1
Tristan Thompson 8 4 4 4
Isaac Okoro 10 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
11%
6 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
7 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 OG Anunoby TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.2 4.8 6.0
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 24.3 7.3 5.9
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.4 3.7 7.1
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.0 10.4 3.7
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 19.7 8.7 5.9
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 19.7 3.6 5.4
7 Caris LeVert CLE 17.5 4.3 3.9
8 OG Anunoby TOR 16.6 4.1 2.9
9 Max Strus CLE 15.9 4.7 4.4
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.1 8.4 2.8
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.7 8.0 2.8
12 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 9.9 2.1 1.4
13 Georges Niang CLE 9.4 3.3 1.3
14 Isaac Okoro CLE 9.3 4.3 2.3
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 9.0 2.8 2.8
16 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.9 6.1 2.2
17 Malachi Flynn TOR 7.3 2.6 2.3
18 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 3.9 0.8
19 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.3 2.4 0.4
20 Sam Merrill CLE 2.7 0.9 0.6
21 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.6 0.9 0.5
22 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.4 1.6 0.7
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.1 0.7 0.4
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.9 1.8 0.5
25 Damian Jones CLE 1.5 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.