NBA games

CHI @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
109–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI36192826109
BKN19443322118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BKN
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 27 6 6
Coby White S 38 23 5 4
Patrick Williams S 35 20 4 0
Zach LaVine S 39 20 6 4
Nikola Vucevic S 37 6 9 5
Ayo Dosunmu 14 5 2 2
Torrey Craig 20 4 3 0
Andre Drummond 11 4 5 0
Jevon Carter 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 38 24 5 7
Royce O'Neale S 36 20 9 4
Lonnie Walker IV 25 20 1 0
Mikal Bridges S 36 15 2 6
Trendon Watford 17 11 4 2
Cameron Johnson S 22 10 4 6
Dorian Finney-Smith S 34 9 4 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 27 9 9 3
Armoni Brooks 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes alley oop layup (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
14%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
14%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
11%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
7 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Mikal Bridges BKN 23.9 6.6 4.3
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.9 4.1 4.7
3 Zach LaVine CHI 21.9 4.8 4.3
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.1 9.2 3.6
5 Cameron Johnson BKN 16.8 5.5 3.1
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 16.1 4.0 6.2
7 Coby White CHI 14.8 3.3 4.2
8 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.5 3.5 1.9
9 Nic Claxton BKN 11.7 7.8 1.6
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.9 5.3 1.6
11 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.3 4.4 2.6
12 Patrick Williams CHI 7.6 4.1 1.2
13 Trendon Watford BKN 7.2 4.0 1.9
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.6 0.9
15 Harry Giles III BKN 6.0 3.2 0.4
16 Torrey Craig CHI 5.8 4.6 1.1
17 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 5.8 1.8 1.3
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.4 6.7 0.8
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.0 1.4 1.1
20 Armoni Brooks BKN 4.9 2.0 0.7
21 Noah Clowney BKN 4.4 3.4 0.7
22 Terry Taylor CHI 2.4 2.1 0.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.4 1.5 0.5
24 Dalen Terry CHI 1.9 1.4 0.8
25 Jalen Wilson BKN 1.5 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.