NBA games

MIN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
119–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN31293029119
MEM2617233197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MEM
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 34 24 5 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 26 18 8 2
Mike Conley S 32 18 4 10
Rudy Gobert S 25 13 4 0
Naz Reid 22 12 6 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 9 1 3
Kyle Anderson 23 6 6 3
Troy Brown Jr. 18 6 4 1
Shake Milton 19 6 2 3
Daishen Nix 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 18 4 3
Santi Aldama S 27 14 7 2
Desmond Bane S 34 13 2 4
Derrick Rose 20 12 2 4
Ziaire Williams 18 11 2 1
David Roddy 28 11 4 2
Bismack Biyombo S 30 10 5 3
Jaylen Nowell 13 4 5 3
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 2 2 0 0
Shaquille Harrison 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 26-foot three pointer (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Santi Aldama MEM
9%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
7%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
7%
10 Jacob Gilyard MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.2 6.0 6.0
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.3 5.0 6.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.2 8.8 3.7
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.3 6.1 2.1
5 Santi Aldama MEM 14.5 5.5 2.1
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.8 11.4 1.6
7 Mike Conley MIN 10.1 2.6 5.3
8 Naz Reid MIN 9.4 3.5 1.0
9 Bismack Biyombo MEM 9.4 8.2 1.6
10 Derrick Rose MEM 8.6 1.9 2.7
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.2 2.6 2.5
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.1 4.1 3.8
13 David Roddy MEM 7.8 3.7 1.1
14 Ziaire Williams MEM 7.3 3.5 1.4
15 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.2 1.8 3.0
16 Shake Milton MIN 5.9 2.3 1.3
17 John Konchar MEM 4.9 3.6 1.6
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.6 2.6 0.8
19 Leonard Miller MIN 4.5 3.5 0.7
20 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.6 2.7 0.7
21 Josh Minott MIN 3.4 1.5 0.8
22 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 3.4 1.6 1.0
23 Daishen Nix MIN 2.7 0.6 1.3
24 Jaylen Nowell MEM 2.7 1.1 0.6
25 Shaquille Harrison MEM 2.3 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.