NBA games

CHA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
117–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA33242931117
ORL25363138130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ORL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 23 10 2
Terry Rozier S 37 22 1 9
Brandon Miller 33 20 5 1
P.J. Washington 28 13 4 2
Mark Williams S 22 12 6 1
Gordon Hayward S 33 10 5 2
LaMelo Ball S 15 7 1 2
JT Thor 9 6 0 0
Ish Smith 17 4 2 4
Theo Maledon 4 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 35 30 7 2
Cole Anthony 32 30 7 7
Paolo Banchero S 37 23 7 8
Jalen Suggs S 32 12 5 1
Moritz Wagner 18 11 7 2
Goga Bitadze S 20 11 7 3
Caleb Houstan 12 6 2 0
Gary Harris 24 5 0 6
Anthony Black S 15 2 0 3
Joe Ingles 15 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gordon Hayward CHA
12%
2 Mark Williams CHA
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
6 Terry Rozier CHA
10%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Miles Bridges CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
31%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 28.4 5.9 8.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 23.5 6.7 4.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.9 7.7 3.2
4 Franz Wagner ORL 19.6 5.6 3.9
5 Terry Rozier CHA 19.0 3.6 4.6
6 Cole Anthony ORL 15.2 4.3 4.4
7 Gordon Hayward CHA 14.9 5.1 4.3
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.6 3.5 3.7
9 Mark Williams CHA 14.3 10.2 1.5
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 14.1 4.5 1.8
11 P.J. Washington CHA 13.5 4.4 1.8
12 Brandon Miller CHA 12.3 3.7 1.9
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.5 7.2 1.8
14 Gary Harris ORL 8.0 2.3 1.6
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.9 5.0 0.8
16 Joe Ingles ORL 6.6 2.9 3.9
17 Anthony Black ORL 6.1 2.6 1.5
18 Theo Maledon CHA 4.4 1.5 1.4
19 JT Thor CHA 4.3 2.6 0.7
20 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.2 1.5 0.8
21 Ish Smith CHA 3.9 1.5 1.9
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 3.9 1.3 0.8
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.9 1.7 0.8
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 2.5 1.9 0.7
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.2 0.6
26 Leaky Black CHA 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.