NBA games

PHX @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX34303121116
NY22343621113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home NY
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 28 5 11
Eric Gordon S 33 25 2 2
Jordan Goodwin 29 14 7 5
Nassir Little 20 11 2 0
Keita Bates-Diop S 28 9 7 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 8 10 4
Chimezie Metu 13 8 4 0
Yuta Watanabe 15 7 0 0
Drew Eubanks 15 3 6 1
Josh Okogie S 17 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 38 35 6 8
Julius Randle S 36 28 5 2
Immanuel Quickley 29 18 2 1
RJ Barrett S 31 9 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein 14 7 5 1
Donte DiVincenzo 14 6 1 0
Josh Hart 24 4 3 2
Mitchell Robinson S 34 3 11 1
Quentin Grimes S 20 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 8-foot pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
12%
2 RJ Barrett NY
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Mitchell Robinson NY
10%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
8 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
8%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
8%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.7 6.5 7.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.8 4.7 8.0
3 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 3.2 5.5
4 Julius Randle NY 24.0 9.4 5.9
5 RJ Barrett NY 21.3 3.9 3.2
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.1 3.1 3.0
7 Eric Gordon PHX 14.3 2.7 3.6
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.7 8.8 3.8
9 Josh Hart NY 9.6 5.4 3.0
10 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.4 3.0 1.8
11 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.5 9.4 0.8
12 Quentin Grimes NY 7.5 1.6 1.4
13 Drew Eubanks PHX 7.1 3.8 1.2
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.0 1.7 0.6
15 Josh Okogie PHX 6.1 3.1 1.1
16 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.8 4.2 0.9
17 Saben Lee PHX 5.7 1.4 1.9
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.7 3.9 1.1
19 Nassir Little PHX 5.6 2.5 0.9
20 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.3 2.7 1.5
21 Yuta Watanabe PHX 4.7 2.2 0.8
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.7 1.6 0.7
23 Bol Bol PHX 2.2 1.0 0.4
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.2 0.5 0.4
25 Miles McBride NY 2.1 0.4 0.3
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.6 2.1 0.2
27 Jericho Sims NY 1.6 1.7 0.3
28 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.4 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.