NBA games

ATL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
103–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL26272921103
BOS33362123113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home BOS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 33 5 7
De'Andre Hunter S 40 24 4 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 32 23 7 0
Saddiq Bey S 29 7 8 1
Dejounte Murray S 34 6 4 3
Clint Capela S 21 4 8 1
Onyeka Okongwu 27 4 3 0
Wesley Matthews 8 2 0 0
AJ Griffin 12 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 34 9 4
Jaylen Brown S 36 21 7 3
Derrick White S 37 15 4 11
Sam Hauser 32 12 4 2
Dalano Banton S 19 8 5 1
Neemias Queta 15 7 10 0
Al Horford S 32 6 15 3
Payton Pritchard 20 6 2 0
Luke Kornet 9 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Al Horford makes 2-foot layup (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
3 Trae Young ATL
14%
4 Clint Capela ATL
12%
5 Dejounte Murray ATL
12%
6 Derrick White BOS
11%
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL
11%
8 Al Horford BOS
8%
9 Saddiq Bey ATL
0%
10 AJ Griffin ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
24%
Layup
49%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.9 3.7 10.7
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.3 8.6 5.3
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.4 4.4 4.7
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 21.9 4.4 5.9
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.5 3.7 2.6
6 Derrick White BOS 14.8 4.0 5.0
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.6 5.7 1.7
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 11.9 4.0 1.5
9 Clint Capela ATL 10.8 9.6 1.1
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.4 3.0 1.4
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 8.9 7.0 1.3
12 Al Horford BOS 8.6 5.4 2.8
13 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.0 3.1 2.6
14 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 3.9 0.8
15 Neemias Queta BOS 5.4 3.7 0.5
16 Dalano Banton BOS 4.5 2.2 0.9
17 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.4 1.7 0.6
18 Trent Forrest ATL 4.4 1.7 2.2
19 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.4 2.3 0.7
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.0 1.3 0.6
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.0 3.3 0.7
22 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.9 2.8 0.9
23 AJ Griffin ATL 3.8 1.3 0.5
24 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.4 1.7 0.7
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.9 1.3 0.8
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.8 2.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.