NBA games

POR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
102–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31372014102
MIL26262333108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home MIL
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 39 22 2 2
Malcolm Brogdon S 34 18 8 12
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 17 6 3
Deandre Ayton S 32 14 13 2
Scoot Henderson 27 13 4 1
Toumani Camara S 17 6 3 0
Matisse Thybulle 26 5 1 1
Jabari Walker 16 4 3 0
Duop Reath 12 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 39 33 16 6
Damian Lillard S 37 31 5 4
Malik Beasley S 36 14 6 0
Bobby Portis 31 12 8 1
Brook Lopez S 31 10 6 3
Pat Connaughton 20 5 4 1
Cameron Payne 17 3 2 3
AJ Green 4 0 1 0
MarJon Beauchamp 9 0 1 1
Thanasis Antetokounmpo 4 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes 1-foot dunk (Damian Lillard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
19%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
9%
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
8 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
9 Duop Reath POR
6%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
76%
Jumper
4%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.8 10.7 6.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 27.2 4.4 7.3
3 Jerami Grant POR 24.5 4.4 3.3
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.0 4.4 5.8
5 Brook Lopez MIL 19.0 6.0 1.5
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.7 5.0 3.6
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.2 9.7 1.9
8 Bobby Portis MIL 13.2 7.1 1.7
9 Scoot Henderson POR 11.9 2.7 5.2
10 Malik Beasley MIL 11.9 4.3 1.6
11 Skylar Mays POR 10.7 2.7 5.5
12 Jabari Walker POR 8.1 4.8 1.2
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 8.0 2.9 1.6
14 Toumani Camara POR 7.7 4.2 1.6
15 Cameron Payne MIL 7.3 2.1 2.9
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.2 4.0 2.1
17 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 6.3 2.5 1.2
18 Duop Reath POR 6.0 2.6 1.2
19 AJ Green MIL 4.3 1.5 1.0
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.4 1.7 0.8
21 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 3.1 1.0 1.5
22 Kris Murray POR 2.9 1.3 0.6
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.9 0.8 0.4
24 Moses Brown POR 2.8 3.0 0.3
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.5 1.3 0.4
26 Justin Minaya POR 2.3 1.3 0.6
27 Robin Lopez MIL 2.3 1.7 0.6
28 Marques Bolden MIL 1.6 2.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.