NBA games

DAL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
88–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL1827172688
LAC29272328107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 30 3 4
Kyrie Irving S 32 26 6 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 12 3 0
Grant Williams S 35 5 4 1
Jaden Hardy 8 4 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 20 4 1 1
Seth Curry 8 3 0 0
Dante Exum 18 2 8 2
Dwight Powell 15 2 2 3
Josh Green 9 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 36 25 9 4
Terance Mann S 32 17 3 1
Norman Powell 25 15 3 1
Russell Westbrook 25 14 8 7
Ivica Zubac S 23 11 14 1
Kawhi Leonard S 29 8 6 3
James Harden S 28 8 4 7
Daniel Theis 16 5 3 0
Bones Hyland 4 3 0 0
Moussa Diabate 5 1 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 18-foot jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Paul George LAC
14%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
6 James Harden LAC
11%
7 Terance Mann LAC
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
9 Grant Williams DAL
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
46%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.1 7.2 7.5
2 Paul George LAC 25.2 6.6 4.1
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.4 5.9
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 23.5 5.1 3.7
5 James Harden LAC 18.1 5.0 6.6
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.9 3.4 2.0
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 14.0 5.9 5.2
8 Bones Hyland LAC 12.3 2.5 3.2
9 Norman Powell LAC 12.0 2.7 1.7
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.8 8.5 1.3
11 Grant Williams DAL 9.2 3.2 1.7
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.1 4.2 1.3
13 Terance Mann LAC 7.3 4.4 2.5
14 Josh Green DAL 7.0 2.8 2.2
15 Daniel Theis LAC 6.4 4.9 1.4
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.6 1.0
17 Dwight Powell DAL 4.7 3.7 1.4
18 Dante Exum DAL 4.4 1.9 1.4
19 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 1.7 0.6
20 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.8 2.7 1.0
21 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.5 3.3 0.5
22 Amir Coffey LAC 3.0 1.4 0.8
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.7 3.3 0.5
24 Seth Curry DAL 2.6 1.2 0.6
25 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.5 1.7 0.3
26 Markieff Morris DAL 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.