NBA games

NO @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
100105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29242423100
UTAH22212537105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home UTAH
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 37 26 6 8
Jordan Hawkins S 40 25 6 3
Herbert Jones S 26 13 1 1
Jose Alvarado 23 13 4 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 26 8 7 2
Dyson Daniels S 34 6 6 5
Naji Marshall 21 5 3 4
Cody Zeller 21 4 6 5
Larry Nance Jr. 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton 28 16 3 6
Keyonte George S 27 15 6 5
Kelly Olynyk 24 13 6 3
John Collins S 23 12 9 0
Walker Kessler 21 11 11 0
Simone Fontecchio S 26 10 3 0
Ochai Agbaji 22 9 1 3
Kris Dunn S 19 8 3 2
Omer Yurtseven S 27 6 7 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 22 5 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 10:00 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 2-foot two point shot (Jordan Hawkins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
15%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
14%
3 John Collins UTAH
13%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
11%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
11%
6 Kelly Olynyk UTAH
10%
7 Herbert Jones NO
9%
8 Dyson Daniels NO
9%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
10 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
21%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 26.4 4.8 5.8
2 Zion Williamson NO 25.6 6.7 5.8
3 John Collins UTAH 15.8 8.2 1.3
4 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.6 3.9 2.5
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.1 8.9 2.9
6 Herbert Jones NO 13.2 4.7 3.6
7 Dyson Daniels NO 11.1 5.3 4.2
8 Keyonte George UTAH 10.9 2.8 6.0
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 10.9 3.5 4.2
10 Collin Sexton UTAH 10.4 3.1 3.7
11 Naji Marshall NO 8.7 3.6 2.2
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.5 7.0 0.8
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.3 5.8 4.0
14 Jose Alvarado NO 6.7 2.2 2.0
15 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.4 3.4 1.1
16 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.7 2.1 0.9
17 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.6 3.6 1.1
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.8 2.8 1.1
19 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.1 2.6 0.7
20 Kris Dunn UTAH 3.9 1.9 1.9
21 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.1 0.9 1.4
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.8 1.7 0.8
23 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 3.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.