NBA games

LAL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
121–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL35352328121
CLE40312321115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CLE
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 38 32 13 3
LeBron James S 36 22 6 6
Austin Reaves 32 15 5 10
Christian Wood 17 13 3 0
Max Christie S 33 12 5 3
Jaxson Hayes 21 10 3 1
D'Angelo Russell S 32 10 5 5
Taurean Prince S 32 7 4 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 22 5 6
Jarrett Allen S 37 21 14 3
Evan Mobley S 36 18 6 6
Georges Niang 23 13 2 1
Max Strus S 34 13 4 2
Craig Porter Jr. 17 11 1 1
Caris LeVert 26 6 1 8
Darius Garland S 14 6 1 3
Isaac Okoro 19 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"LeBron James makes two point shot (Taurean Prince assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
9%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
7%
9 Max Strus CLE
7%
10 Max Christie LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
24%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 26.1 7.4 6.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.8 4.7 5.6
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.1 3.7 6.8
4 Anthony Davis LAL 20.5 11.9 3.6
5 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 10.4 3.3
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.8 4.1 6.1
7 Caris LeVert CLE 18.8 4.7 4.0
8 Austin Reaves LAL 17.5 5.7 5.8
9 Max Strus CLE 14.4 4.7 4.0
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.4 7.7 2.4
11 Taurean Prince LAL 9.3 2.8 1.4
12 Georges Niang CLE 9.0 3.5 1.2
13 Isaac Okoro CLE 8.7 3.2 2.0
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 7.3 2.4 2.5
15 Christian Wood LAL 6.2 5.1 1.1
16 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.6 3.6 3.7
17 Max Christie LAL 4.8 2.8 1.0
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.5 2.0 0.6
19 Sam Merrill CLE 3.0 1.1 0.7
20 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.5 0.9 0.3
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 2.0 0.6
22 Damian Jones CLE 1.9 1.2 0.5
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.6 0.7 0.6
24 Alex Fudge LAL 1.5 1.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.