NBA games

ATL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
136–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL34363729136
WSH30282030108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home WSH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 30 26 6 10
De'Andre Hunter S 31 20 4 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 15 3 1
Saddiq Bey 32 13 9 1
Clint Capela S 18 12 11 1
Dejounte Murray S 27 11 5 10
Onyeka Okongwu 25 9 6 1
Jalen Johnson S 8 8 1 1
AJ Griffin 6 6 0 0
Garrison Mathews 14 6 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jared Butler 16 13 2 5
Kyle Kuzma S 25 12 7 8
Landry Shamet 17 12 1 2
Daniel Gafford S 18 12 4 0
Corey Kispert S 28 10 1 2
Eugene Omoruyi 12 10 3 1
Anthony Gill 18 10 3 1
Deni Avdija S 17 9 6 2
Bilal Coulibaly 32 7 3 2
Mike Muscala 18 5 6 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dejounte Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
14%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
5 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
10 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
17%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 29.3 3.4 11.3
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 25.2 5.5 5.7
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.5 4.8 6.3
4 Jordan Poole WSH 20.9 3.7 4.4
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.7 3.9 2.7
6 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.6 8.2 3.1
7 Deni Avdija WSH 13.5 4.9 4.1
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.3 5.6 1.7
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.1 4.3 1.8
10 Tyus Jones WSH 12.9 3.5 4.8
11 Clint Capela ATL 11.6 10.5 1.2
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 11.5 8.7 1.8
13 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.8 3.8 2.0
14 Corey Kispert WSH 10.6 3.0 2.0
15 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.5 7.8 1.6
16 Landry Shamet WSH 7.3 1.9 1.3
17 AJ Griffin ATL 4.8 1.4 0.8
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.5 1.8 0.7
19 Johnny Davis WSH 4.1 2.0 0.7
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.8 1.3 2.1
21 Mike Muscala WSH 3.8 2.1 0.6
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.0 0.4
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.5 2.2 0.8
24 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.3 1.7 0.8
25 Patty Mills ATL 3.0 1.3 1.0
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.4 0.6
27 Jared Butler WSH 2.5 1.1 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.