NBA games

MIA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
97–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2231232197
BKN26372722112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BKN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Caleb Martin 31 22 7 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 31 18 5 4
Cole Swider 20 11 0 1
Josh Richardson S 37 11 5 5
Kyle Lowry S 30 9 3 4
Kevin Love 17 8 10 2
Haywood Highsmith S 15 8 4 0
Jamal Cain 29 7 3 0
Thomas Bryant S 13 2 1 0
Nikola Jovic 17 1 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 33 24 6 3
Cameron Johnson S 35 19 10 5
Dorian Finney-Smith S 34 16 5 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 36 14 2 11
Nic Claxton S 24 13 6 0
Lonnie Walker IV 14 8 1 0
Trendon Watford 13 7 2 0
Royce O'Neale 29 6 2 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 12 4 4 1
Dariq Whitehead 3 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges BKN
14%
2 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
11%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
6 Thomas Bryant MIA
9%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
9 Josh Richardson MIA
8%
10 Kyle Lowry MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
39%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA 23.3 4.6 4.4
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 23.2 6.1 4.1
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 15.4 4.8 2.7
4 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 15.0 4.1 5.9
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 14.7 4.2 2.7
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.3 3.4 1.8
7 Nic Claxton BKN 12.0 7.8 1.7
8 Kyle Lowry MIA 10.7 3.8 4.3
9 Josh Richardson MIA 10.6 2.8 2.4
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.5 4.9 1.4
11 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.1 3.5 1.8
12 Royce O'Neale BKN 8.0 4.6 2.9
13 Trendon Watford BKN 7.6 4.1 1.8
14 Kevin Love MIA 7.5 5.7 1.6
15 Cole Swider MIA 7.4 1.6 1.1
16 Jamal Cain MIA 7.3 5.3 0.6
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.6 0.9
18 Harry Giles III BKN 6.1 3.3 0.4
19 Caleb Martin MIA 5.9 2.8 1.3
20 Noah Clowney BKN 5.5 4.2 0.8
21 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.4 3.9 0.8
22 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.2 3.5 1.1
23 Armoni Brooks BKN 2.7 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.