NBA games

PHI @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
127–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI29362834127
OKC31302141123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home OKC
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 37 35 11 9
Tyrese Maxey S 41 28 8 3
Tobias Harris S 31 16 5 6
De'Anthony Melton S 30 14 7 5
Nicolas Batum S 32 14 7 3
Robert Covington 21 9 1 0
Patrick Beverley 21 6 4 4
Paul Reed 11 5 3 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 15 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Chet Holmgren S 32 33 6 2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 31 6 5
Isaiah Joe 26 13 3 2
Kenrich Williams 19 11 2 2
Josh Giddey S 26 10 7 8
Jaylin Williams 26 8 6 5
Aaron Wiggins 20 7 3 1
Davis Bertans 10 5 1 1
Luguentz Dort S 25 5 2 0
Ousmane Dieng 8 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes layup (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
29%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
9%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
8%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
6 Josh Giddey OKC
7%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
8 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
6%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
12%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 5.4 7.7
2 Joel Embiid PHI 30.8 11.2 6.3
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.7 4.6 7.0
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.7 8.8 3.1
5 Tobias Harris PHI 19.6 6.4 3.0
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI 14.7 4.3 3.1
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.3 6.1 5.2
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 4.4 1.6
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.0 2.5 1.3
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.0 2.7 1.9
11 Nicolas Batum PHI 6.3 3.5 1.4
12 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.2 2.7 2.4
13 Robert Covington PHI 5.6 3.7 0.9
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.2 2.2 1.0
15 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.1 1.3 3.5
16 Paul Reed PHI 4.9 4.5 0.9
17 Tre Mann OKC 4.8 2.0 1.3
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.3 3.4 1.3
19 Jaden Springer PHI 4.1 2.4 1.1
20 Davis Bertans OKC 4.0 0.9 0.6
21 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 3.6 1.8 0.6
22 Patrick Beverley PHI 3.6 2.3 1.6
23 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.4 3.3 0.6
24 KJ Martin PHI 3.2 1.7 0.7
25 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.2 1.3 0.6
26 Mo Bamba PHI 2.8 2.1 0.5
27 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.8 1.5 0.8
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.9 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.