NBA games

DAL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL29332913104
LAL25212530101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home LAL
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 30 12 8
Kyrie Irving S 35 28 6 2
Josh Green 22 15 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 30 7 2 3
Grant Williams S 32 6 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 6 2 0
Richaun Holmes 23 4 10 1
Dante Exum 9 4 0 0
Dereck Lively II S 19 2 10 3
Jaden Hardy 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 26 9 7
Austin Reaves 31 17 6 6
D'Angelo Russell S 24 15 3 5
Taurean Prince S 37 14 6 2
Anthony Davis S 36 10 13 4
Rui Hachimura 26 9 3 1
Max Christie S 23 7 2 0
Jaxson Hayes 11 2 4 0
Christian Wood 15 1 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyrie Irving · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Kyrie Irving makes 16-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
12%
4 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
5 LeBron James LAL
11%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
7 Taurean Prince LAL
9%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
9 Grant Williams DAL
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
48%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.6 8.1 7.3
2 Luka Doncic DAL 28.1 7.1 8.0
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.9 4.5 6.4
4 Anthony Davis LAL 22.5 11.9 3.9
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.5 4.3 6.3
6 Austin Reaves LAL 17.5 5.4 6.0
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.1 3.5 2.0
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.5 4.2 1.8
9 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.7 8.0 1.5
10 Grant Williams DAL 9.6 3.4 1.8
11 Taurean Prince LAL 8.6 2.7 1.5
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.3 4.1 1.5
13 Christian Wood LAL 7.3 5.3 1.3
14 Josh Green DAL 7.0 2.9 2.4
15 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.9 3.7 4.0
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.7 1.6 1.1
17 Dwight Powell DAL 5.1 3.8 1.5
18 Max Christie LAL 4.7 2.9 1.1
19 Dante Exum DAL 4.5 2.0 1.5
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.9 2.5 0.7
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.0 1.9 0.5
22 Seth Curry DAL 2.9 1.3 0.7
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.7 2.7 0.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.7 1.2 0.8
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.1 0.7 0.7
26 Alex Fudge LAL 1.9 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.