NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
105–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21252732105
POR32332432121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 34 24 8 0
Keyonte George S 34 16 3 7
Jordan Clarkson S 32 13 2 5
Kelly Olynyk S 32 13 9 5
John Collins S 32 12 11 1
Ochai Agbaji 14 9 0 1
Simone Fontecchio 16 8 1 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 5 0 1
Omer Yurtseven 16 3 6 1
Collin Sexton 11 1 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 32 30 2 4
Malcolm Brogdon S 24 20 4 8
Jabari Walker 28 19 10 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 14 4 4
Matisse Thybulle 32 13 1 2
Toumani Camara S 28 12 7 3
Duop Reath S 20 8 4 1
Scoot Henderson 17 3 3 7
Kris Murray 17 2 2 0
Skylar Mays 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jerami Grant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jerami Grant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
18%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 John Collins UTAH
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
9%
7 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 24.0 4.2 3.2
2 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 23.3 4.1 5.2
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.5 8.0 1.6
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.3 5.7 4.0
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.5 3.9 5.8
6 John Collins UTAH 16.3 7.7 1.4
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.2 3.5 4.0
8 Scoot Henderson POR 12.5 2.4 5.5
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.8 4.0 4.8
10 Skylar Mays POR 11.4 2.8 5.8
11 Keyonte George UTAH 11.0 2.9 5.7
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.4 5.7 4.0
13 Toumani Camara POR 7.6 4.3 1.5
14 Jabari Walker POR 6.8 4.2 1.1
15 Duop Reath POR 6.7 2.8 1.3
16 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.7 2.6 1.5
17 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.3 3.6 1.2
18 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.1 2.2 0.9
19 Kris Dunn UTAH 4.6 2.0 2.2
20 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 4.5 2.8 0.7
21 Moses Brown POR 3.7 3.4 0.6
22 Kris Murray POR 3.6 1.6 0.9
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.3 2.0 0.8
24 Jamaree Bouyea POR 3.2 1.9 1.4
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.8 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.