NBA games

GS @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
115–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31162840115
PHX26372832123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home PHX
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 25 23 3 1
Dario Saric 22 17 6 4
Stephen Curry S 28 16 3 6
Andrew Wiggins S 25 11 4 1
Brandin Podziemski 23 10 4 2
Moses Moody 23 8 9 1
Jonathan Kuminga 21 7 1 2
Kevon Looney S 17 6 6 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 15 6 4 0
Chris Paul S 17 6 2 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 34 32 8 2
Devin Booker S 31 25 8 10
Eric Gordon S 29 13 1 4
Josh Okogie 27 12 2 0
Nassir Little 27 10 5 3
Grayson Allen S 34 9 3 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 17 9 5 0
Drew Eubanks 16 6 6 0
Chimezie Metu 12 4 2 0
Keita Bates-Diop 13 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
18%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
3 Klay Thompson GS
10%
4 Devin Booker PHX
9%
5 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
8 Kevon Looney GS
8%
9 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
76%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
6%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 31.3 6.7 6.6
2 Stephen Curry GS 27.4 4.7 4.7
3 Devin Booker PHX 25.9 4.4 7.8
4 Klay Thompson GS 14.0 3.0 2.4
5 Eric Gordon PHX 14.0 3.0 3.7
6 Grayson Allen PHX 13.7 4.4 3.1
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.3 8.7 4.0
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.7 4.7 1.7
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.6 3.4 1.3
10 Chris Paul GS 10.9 3.0 6.8
11 Dario Saric GS 10.8 5.4 1.8
12 Draymond Green GS 9.4 4.1 4.9
13 Drew Eubanks PHX 8.5 3.9 1.5
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.2 3.6 2.5
15 Kevon Looney GS 6.9 8.0 2.5
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.9 4.0 1.2
17 Moses Moody GS 6.6 2.7 1.1
18 Nassir Little PHX 6.0 2.5 0.8
19 Saben Lee PHX 6.0 1.6 2.0
20 Josh Okogie PHX 5.7 2.7 1.1
21 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.3 2.9 1.7
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.1 2.2 0.9
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.8 2.4 0.7
24 Cory Joseph GS 2.7 0.8 1.5
25 Bol Bol PHX 2.6 1.1 0.4
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.0 2.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.