NBA games

LAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
109–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC26282827109
SA14342232102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SA
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 36 26 4 4
Paul George S 36 24 8 3
James Harden S 36 16 6 9
Ivica Zubac S 26 12 8 1
Russell Westbrook 27 8 6 7
Daniel Theis 20 8 11 4
Terance Mann S 23 6 2 1
Norman Powell 14 5 1 0
Amir Coffey 10 4 3 0
P.J. Tucker 13 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 33 22 15 3
Jeremy Sochan S 32 19 5 7
Devin Vassell 27 18 4 4
Zach Collins S 28 16 9 3
Keldon Johnson S 36 15 3 6
Cedi Osman 19 5 1 0
Tre Jones 20 4 2 1
Doug McDermott 14 3 2 1
Charles Bassey 2 0 0 0
Dominick Barlow 9 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 4-foot layup (Kawhi Leonard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
2 Zach Collins SA
11%
3 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
4 James Harden LAC
10%
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Paul George LAC
9%
8 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
7%
10 Terance Mann LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
20%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 25.3 6.0 4.4
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.9 5.1 3.7
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.2 10.4 3.3
4 James Harden LAC 18.7 5.1 6.2
5 Keldon Johnson SA 18.7 6.3 4.6
6 Zach Collins SA 18.3 6.5 3.6
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 17.0 6.1 5.2
8 Devin Vassell SA 16.9 3.5 2.7
9 Bones Hyland LAC 12.7 2.7 3.4
10 Norman Powell LAC 12.6 3.0 1.9
11 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.6 5.5 4.3
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.9 9.1 1.3
13 Malaki Branham SA 9.7 2.1 2.3
14 Tre Jones SA 9.0 3.0 5.2
15 Doug McDermott SA 6.8 1.4 1.9
16 Cedi Osman SA 6.7 2.5 1.4
17 Terance Mann LAC 6.6 4.2 2.0
18 Daniel Theis LAC 5.9 3.8 0.8
19 Julian Champagnie SA 4.9 2.2 1.1
20 Moussa Diabate LAC 4.4 3.7 0.7
21 P.J. Tucker LAC 4.2 3.0 0.8
22 Amir Coffey LAC 3.9 1.5 0.9
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 1.7 0.5
24 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.3 1.3
25 Charles Bassey SA 3.5 4.0 0.9
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.2 1.4 0.6
27 Blake Wesley SA 2.8 1.1 1.5
28 Dominick Barlow SA 2.6 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.