NBA games

CHI @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
102–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI14253825102
OKC26243432116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home OKC
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 25 2 6
Coby White S 37 23 1 5
Nikola Vucevic S 37 16 12 3
Alex Caruso S 27 12 6 1
Ayo Dosunmu 21 11 2 2
Patrick Williams S 37 10 7 2
Jevon Carter 19 3 0 2
Andre Drummond 11 2 5 1
Torrey Craig 15 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 40 5 12
Isaiah Joe 27 20 1 0
Chet Holmgren S 32 18 13 2
Kenrich Williams 23 13 5 2
Josh Giddey S 29 10 6 2
Aaron Wiggins 11 6 4 1
Cason Wallace S 24 5 3 0
Luguentz Dort S 27 2 2 2
Vasilije Micic 11 2 0 2
Jaylin Williams 15 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Josh Giddey OKC
12%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
10%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Alex Caruso CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
35%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.7 6.5 7.3
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.4 4.0 5.0
3 Zach LaVine CHI 20.9 5.5 5.0
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.3 9.3 3.7
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.2 8.5 3.1
6 Josh Giddey OKC 14.5 6.4 5.1
7 Coby White CHI 13.8 3.5 4.4
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.2 4.3 1.5
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.4 3.4 2.3
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 2.4 1.4
11 Cason Wallace OKC 7.8 2.6 1.9
12 Patrick Williams CHI 6.9 4.0 1.3
13 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 4.9 1.5
14 Andre Drummond CHI 5.8 7.2 0.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.7 3.9 1.4
16 Tre Mann OKC 5.7 2.3 1.5
17 Jevon Carter CHI 5.4 1.4 1.0
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.4 1.7 3.9
19 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 5.2 1.7 1.1
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.5 2.4
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.0 1.9 0.9
22 Davis Bertans OKC 4.8 1.3 0.8
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.5 1.6 0.8
24 Terry Taylor CHI 3.2 2.4 0.7
25 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 2.6 1.5 0.9
26 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.6 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.