NBA games

SAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
112117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30202933112
NO32322924117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NO
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 26 2 5
Domantas Sabonis S 36 23 9 6
Harrison Barnes S 41 22 3 0
Trey Lyles 28 12 8 0
Malik Monk 26 10 4 5
Kevin Huerter S 27 8 7 2
Chris Duarte S 20 6 1 2
Sasha Vezenkov 10 3 2 0
Davion Mitchell 10 2 1 2
Kessler Edwards 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 35 25 5 6
Brandon Ingram S 30 23 4 3
Jonas Valanciunas S 28 15 11 2
Jordan Hawkins 21 13 2 3
Naji Marshall 20 12 6 4
Jose Alvarado 19 10 1 2
Dyson Daniels S 29 8 7 0
Herbert Jones S 39 7 5 3
Larry Nance Jr. 12 4 4 0
Cody Zeller 8 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes dunk (Herbert Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
17%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
3 Zion Williamson NO
14%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
13%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
8 Dyson Daniels NO
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
10 Malik Monk SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
46%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.0 4.7 5.6
2 Brandon Ingram NO 24.4 5.6 5.6
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.7 6.6 5.3
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.6 12.2 8.0
5 Kevin Huerter SAC 15.2 4.4 3.3
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 14.6 8.9 2.8
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.3 3.9 2.1
8 Malik Monk SAC 13.5 3.4 5.4
9 Herbert Jones NO 12.1 4.2 2.7
10 Dyson Daniels NO 11.0 4.7 4.7
11 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.2 3.0 1.7
12 Naji Marshall NO 8.4 3.1 2.1
13 Trey Lyles SAC 6.7 2.4 0.9
14 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.6 1.9 3.1
15 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.8 3.2 1.3
16 JaVale McGee SAC 5.8 4.3 0.8
17 Colby Jones SAC 5.7 1.8 0.9
18 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.3 2.0 0.7
19 Chris Duarte SAC 5.2 2.1 1.1
20 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.9 1.3 1.6
21 Filip Petrusev SAC 3.7 2.1 0.9
22 Larry Nance Jr. NO 3.6 3.1 0.7
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 2.0 0.7
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.8 3.3 0.9
25 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.7 2.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.