NBA games

PHI @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
99–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2029302099
MIN37203421112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home MIN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton S 30 16 6 3
Tyrese Maxey S 34 16 5 8
Marcus Morris Sr. S 16 16 4 2
Tobias Harris S 32 15 6 2
Paul Reed 26 10 9 1
Nicolas Batum S 24 6 3 0
Robert Covington 20 5 6 0
Mo Bamba 6 4 2 0
Danuel House Jr. 17 3 2 2
KJ Martin 6 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 31 6 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 23 11 3
Naz Reid 22 13 4 0
Rudy Gobert S 31 13 11 3
Shake Milton 21 12 0 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 29 7 6 4
Kyle Anderson 28 7 5 3
Mike Conley S 23 5 0 8
Luka Garza 2 1 1 0
Josh Minott 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes alley oop dunk shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
15%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
14%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
13%
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI
10%
7 Mike Conley MIN
9%
8 Nicolas Batum PHI
8%
9 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI
0%
10 Robert Covington PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
35%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 5.8 6.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 4.5 6.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.0 8.0 3.8
4 Tobias Harris PHI 20.8 6.6 3.0
5 De'Anthony Melton PHI 14.2 4.0 3.2
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.5 11.1 1.6
7 Mike Conley MIN 11.0 2.9 5.5
8 Naz Reid MIN 10.7 3.7 1.3
9 Kyle Anderson MIN 9.1 3.9 3.9
10 Luka Garza MIN 7.5 2.9 0.7
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.2 2.2 2.3
12 Nicolas Batum PHI 5.9 3.0 1.3
13 Shake Milton MIN 5.6 2.3 1.3
14 Robert Covington PHI 5.3 3.4 0.8
15 Wendell Moore Jr. MIN 5.3 2.0 2.0
16 Paul Reed PHI 4.4 3.9 0.8
17 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.3 1.6 0.9
18 Josh Minott MIN 4.3 1.8 1.1
19 Leonard Miller MIN 4.3 2.9 0.6
20 Jaden Springer PHI 4.1 2.2 1.0
21 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.9 2.2 0.9
22 Patrick Beverley PHI 3.5 2.7 1.5
23 KJ Martin PHI 2.9 1.4 0.8
24 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 2.8 1.0 0.5
25 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 2.4 1.2 0.4
26 Mo Bamba PHI 2.2 1.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.