NBA games

MEM @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
91–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM2818222391
HOU21242937111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home HOU
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 23 7 0
Desmond Bane S 26 23 7 4
Ziaire Williams 20 13 2 0
Santi Aldama S 22 8 2 0
Derrick Rose 16 7 1 2
Bismack Biyombo S 31 5 5 2
Jacob Gilyard S 24 5 1 4
David Roddy 22 4 6 1
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 4 3 0 2
Vince Williams Jr. 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 30 34 2 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 18 9 2
Fred VanVleet S 39 16 7 4
Dillon Brooks S 27 13 5 1
Alperen Sengun S 32 11 7 3
Aaron Holiday 17 7 3 2
Tari Eason 19 6 5 2
Nate Williams 3 2 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 26 2 9 4
Jock Landale 4 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 9-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
3 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Bismack Biyombo MEM
10%
7 Santi Aldama MEM
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
29%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 24.0 4.7 5.1
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.5 8.6 5.9
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.1 6.1 2.3
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.4 5.0 3.5
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.6 4.1 8.7
6 Santi Aldama MEM 14.7 5.7 2.7
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.1 4.1 2.3
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 6.8 1.8
9 Bismack Biyombo MEM 9.4 9.0 1.6
10 Ziaire Williams MEM 8.8 4.5 1.6
11 David Roddy MEM 7.6 3.4 0.9
12 Tari Eason HOU 7.5 6.3 1.1
13 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 7.2 3.9 1.5
14 Derrick Rose MEM 6.8 1.5 2.7
15 Jeff Green HOU 6.6 3.0 0.9
16 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.1 1.8 1.6
17 Nate Williams HOU 5.0 1.8 0.4
18 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.9 1.5 2.7
19 John Konchar MEM 4.5 3.7 1.5
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.3 2.4 0.7
21 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 3.1 1.4 0.9
22 GG Jackson MEM 3.1 0.6 0.3
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.0 2.2 0.8
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.9 1.7 0.7
25 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.3 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.