NBA games

TOR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
132–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR27413232132
IND35303630131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home IND
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 38 36 10 5
Dennis Schroder S 32 26 6 5
Scottie Barnes S 39 20 12 4
Malachi Flynn 20 14 4 2
OG Anunoby S 36 13 4 3
Gary Trent Jr. 25 8 1 1
Jakob Poeltl S 29 6 4 6
Chris Boucher 10 6 1 0
Otto Porter Jr. 11 3 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 33 3 16
Buddy Hield S 35 31 2 5
Myles Turner S 29 17 8 0
Obi Toppin S 36 16 3 1
Bruce Brown S 34 14 4 3
Jalen Smith 19 8 5 0
T.J. McConnell 14 7 2 5
Bennedict Mathurin 24 5 0 2
Jordan Nwora 14 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes layup (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
3 Myles Turner IND
12%
4 Dennis Schroder TOR
12%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
12%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
7 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
8 Bruce Brown IND
9%
9 Buddy Hield IND
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 26.4 3.9 11.9
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 23.9 7.1 6.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.1 8.5 6.3
4 Dennis Schroder TOR 19.9 3.6 6.5
5 Myles Turner IND 16.8 6.4 1.9
6 OG Anunoby TOR 16.2 4.2 2.4
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.5 4.6 2.4
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.2 8.9 2.5
9 Obi Toppin IND 12.8 3.5 1.7
10 Buddy Hield IND 12.6 3.5 2.4
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.7 2.5 1.4
12 Bruce Brown IND 11.2 4.0 2.9
13 Jalen Smith IND 9.1 5.1 1.3
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 7.0 2.7 2.8
15 T.J. McConnell IND 7.0 2.6 3.2
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.9 4.8 0.9
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.6 1.9 1.4
18 Jarace Walker IND 5.7 3.3 1.6
19 Jordan Nwora IND 5.4 2.0 1.1
20 Gradey Dick TOR 4.8 1.6 1.4
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.7 4.2 0.8
22 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 4.4 2.6 0.6
23 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.6 1.5 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 3.1 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.