NBA games

MIA @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
129–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA37323228129
CLE2629241796

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CLE
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Lowry S 29 28 1 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 28 22 8 1
Orlando Robinson 28 14 9 2
Caleb Martin 26 14 3 1
Josh Richardson 27 14 1 5
Jimmy Butler III S 28 10 4 9
Haywood Highsmith S 25 10 6 5
Thomas Bryant S 24 10 7 1
Duncan Robinson S 24 7 2 3
Dru Smith 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Craig Porter Jr. S 35 16 2 5
Darius Garland S 27 14 1 3
Evan Mobley S 25 13 10 2
Caris LeVert 18 12 2 3
Georges Niang 20 11 3 1
Sam Merrill 17 9 1 1
Max Strus S 25 6 3 3
Tristan Thompson 13 4 3 0
Jarrett Allen S 23 4 4 2
Emoni Bates 16 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Lowry · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Kyle Lowry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Darius Garland CLE
12%
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA
11%
6 Max Strus CLE
9%
7 Haywood Highsmith MIA
9%
8 Kyle Lowry MIA
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
10 Caris LeVert CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
27%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.6 11.4 4.8
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.9 4.8 4.1
3 Darius Garland CLE 22.3 3.8 6.6
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.3 10.3 3.6
5 Caris LeVert CLE 18.6 4.5 3.8
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 16.3 3.4 3.3
7 Max Strus CLE 15.4 4.8 4.2
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.1 8.0 2.4
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.2 3.9 2.3
10 Josh Richardson MIA 9.2 2.8 2.4
11 Georges Niang CLE 8.9 4.0 1.3
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 8.8 3.4 4.3
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.0 3.1 1.6
14 Dru Smith MIA 6.2 2.3 2.5
15 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.7 3.5 1.4
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.7 2.4 2.0
17 Caleb Martin MIA 4.8 2.5 1.2
18 Emoni Bates CLE 4.2 1.8 0.6
19 Thomas Bryant MIA 3.7 3.0 0.4
20 Sam Merrill CLE 3.3 1.4 0.7
21 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.9 2.3 0.7
22 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.5 1.7 0.6
23 Damian Jones CLE 1.8 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.