NBA games

MIL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL17362637116
BOS29382725119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BOS
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 34 28 7 1
Damian Lillard S 38 27 5 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 21 13 5
Khris Middleton S 29 12 5 7
Andre Jackson Jr. 8 7 1 0
Malik Beasley S 23 6 3 3
MarJon Beauchamp 22 5 3 0
Bobby Portis 21 4 7 0
Cameron Payne 10 3 0 2
Pat Connaughton 20 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 26 2 8
Jayson Tatum S 36 23 11 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 21 6 1
Derrick White S 35 13 4 5
Al Horford 31 11 8 6
Sam Hauser 20 10 2 1
Payton Pritchard 21 10 2 1
Jrue Holiday S 35 5 8 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:50 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.5 10.8 5.9
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.4 8.8 4.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 24.6 3.9 6.3
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 4.9 4.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.1 6.9 2.3
6 Brook Lopez MIL 18.5 6.0 1.5
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.9 7.7 5.5
8 Derrick White BOS 14.4 3.8 4.5
9 Bobby Portis MIL 12.7 6.5 1.6
10 Khris Middleton MIL 12.6 4.1 3.7
11 Malik Beasley MIL 10.0 3.6 1.4
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.2 3.1 1.3
13 Al Horford BOS 7.7 4.9 2.0
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.0 3.4 2.5
15 Cameron Payne MIL 6.9 1.9 2.8
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.9 3.5 2.3
17 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 5.0 1.7 0.7
18 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 4.9 1.8 0.8
19 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.6 2.7 0.7
20 Luke Kornet BOS 4.4 3.5 0.7
21 AJ Green MIL 4.3 1.3 0.9
22 Dalano Banton BOS 3.8 1.9 0.6
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.2 3.0 0.7
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.1 1.7 0.6
25 Robin Lopez MIL 2.9 2.0 0.8
26 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.8 1.6 0.9
27 Chris Livingston MIL 2.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.