NBA games

BKN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
145–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BKN3334283614145
ATL4532233116147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ATL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 44 45 10 4
Spencer Dinwiddie S 42 26 6 12
Cameron Johnson S 38 23 5 5
Nic Claxton S 37 22 11 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 38 8 8 1
Lonnie Walker IV 16 8 2 1
Trendon Watford 15 7 7 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 6 7 0
Royce O'Neale 21 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 40 43 4 9
De'Andre Hunter S 39 25 11 0
Dejounte Murray S 39 20 6 8
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 14 4 3
Clint Capela S 27 14 15 0
Saddiq Bey 25 12 2 1
Onyeka Okongwu 25 12 10 0
Jalen Johnson S 40 7 6 3
AJ Griffin 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Spencer Dinwiddie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
2 Dejounte Murray ATL
11%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Trae Young ATL
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
7 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
29%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.5 3.1 9.8
2 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.3 4.6 5.6
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.8 5.9 4.2
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 16.5 8.0 2.9
5 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 15.7 3.4 2.5
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 15.5 3.6 2.2
7 Cameron Johnson BKN 14.5 4.8 2.3
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 13.0 3.6 5.1
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.8 5.8 1.6
10 De'Andre Hunter ATL 12.0 3.7 1.8
11 Nic Claxton BKN 10.5 7.1 1.6
12 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.3 4.4 1.4
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.8 8.7 1.1
14 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.8 7.4 1.5
15 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.0 4.6 3.5
16 Trendon Watford BKN 7.7 3.8 2.0
17 Harry Giles III BKN 7.0 3.5 0.6
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.6 0.9
19 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.6 1.8 3.0
20 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.7 1.9 0.8
21 AJ Griffin ATL 3.6 1.1 0.5
22 Trent Forrest ATL 3.6 1.2 2.0
23 Armoni Brooks BKN 3.5 1.3 0.4
24 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.3 1.0 0.4
25 Bruno Fernando ATL 2.9 2.1 0.7
26 Patty Mills ATL 2.8 1.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.