NBA games

DEN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
119–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28342631119
ORL28282642124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home ORL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 30 13 12
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 25 2 0
Aaron Gordon S 37 15 10 1
Reggie Jackson S 34 14 4 9
Christian Braun 21 13 7 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 10 1 2
Julian Strawther 17 7 2 2
Zeke Nnaji 12 3 1 2
Peyton Watson 10 2 1 0
Jalen Pickett 8 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 31 27 3 4
Paolo Banchero S 35 23 3 4
Cole Anthony 29 20 5 0
Moritz Wagner 15 12 3 1
Joe Ingles 17 12 1 7
Jalen Suggs S 29 10 4 4
Jonathan Isaac 14 9 6 1
Goga Bitadze S 32 6 12 2
Gary Harris 23 5 3 3
Anthony Black S 15 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
19%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
14%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.5 12.5 8.7
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 7.4 4.7
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.0 5.1 3.3
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.8 7.2 1.6
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.1 7.8 4.4
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.3 4.4 4.3
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.0 3.7 3.7
8 Reggie Jackson DEN 13.4 2.4 3.4
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.9 4.7 1.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.6 2.1 3.0
11 Christian Braun DEN 9.1 3.6 1.4
12 Gary Harris ORL 8.2 2.5 1.4
13 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.5 6.6 1.6
14 Anthony Black ORL 7.2 3.1 1.5
15 Joe Ingles ORL 6.3 2.8 3.1
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 4.3 0.7
17 Julian Strawther DEN 5.0 1.3 0.8
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.4 2.2 0.9
19 Peyton Watson DEN 3.9 1.9 0.8
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.9 1.6 0.7
21 Justin Holiday DEN 3.8 1.3 0.9
22 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.7 2.4 0.6
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.3 1.0
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.2 2.2 0.8
25 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.1 2.0 2.1
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.0 1.6 0.7
27 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.9 0.9 1.1
28 Braxton Key DEN 2.4 1.4 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.