NBA games

WSH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24323523114
CHA21282939117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHA
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 35 28 9 10
Jordan Poole S 33 24 5 2
Daniel Gafford S 34 15 16 1
Deni Avdija S 28 13 5 1
Tyus Jones S 35 13 1 7
Landry Shamet 18 7 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly 19 7 0 2
Corey Kispert 18 6 4 1
Danilo Gallinari 14 1 5 1
Johnny Davis 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 40 34 8 13
Miles Bridges S 37 33 10 0
Brandon Miller S 31 15 0 3
Bryce McGowens 23 13 3 0
Mark Williams S 35 11 15 0
JT Thor 23 5 4 1
Gordon Hayward S 30 4 9 6
Nick Smith Jr. 1 2 0 0
Ish Smith 20 0 0 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyus Jones · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Tyus Jones makes 8-foot two point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Gordon Hayward CHA
13%
3 Mark Williams CHA
12%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
9%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
10 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
47%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 29.3 5.8 9.4
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.5 5.6 5.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 20.4 7.9 4.1
4 Jordan Poole WSH 18.2 3.0 4.1
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 17.0 5.0 4.9
6 Mark Williams CHA 15.0 11.6 1.9
7 P.J. Washington CHA 15.0 4.9 2.3
8 Deni Avdija WSH 14.6 5.1 4.2
9 Brandon Miller CHA 13.8 4.8 2.2
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.6 4.0 2.2
11 Tyus Jones WSH 10.5 2.9 3.9
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.4 7.5 1.5
13 Corey Kispert WSH 8.8 2.3 1.9
14 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.4 3.3 1.8
15 Landry Shamet WSH 6.3 1.7 1.4
16 Theo Maledon CHA 5.5 1.9 1.7
17 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 5.4 2.2 1.0
18 Ish Smith CHA 5.2 2.1 1.8
19 Johnny Davis WSH 5.1 2.3 0.9
20 JT Thor CHA 5.0 3.4 0.9
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.7 1.8 1.1
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.1 1.6 0.7
23 Mike Muscala WSH 3.9 2.3 0.6
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.3 1.7 0.8
25 Jared Butler WSH 3.2 1.5 1.3
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.6 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.