NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
116–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU27262835116
GS29342929121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 37 30 13 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 17 9 2
Dillon Brooks S 31 16 4 2
Jalen Green S 23 16 3 2
Aaron Holiday 28 13 4 1
Fred VanVleet S 41 10 5 14
Jae'Sean Tate 21 9 3 1
Jeff Green 14 5 1 1
Reggie Bullock Jr. 8 0 5 0
Jock Landale 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 32 5 1
Klay Thompson S 31 20 3 3
Dario Saric 26 18 5 2
Chris Paul S 34 15 6 12
Andrew Wiggins S 30 12 7 1
Kevon Looney S 22 7 5 3
Moses Moody 22 7 4 0
Jonathan Kuminga 18 7 3 1
Brandin Podziemski 18 3 5 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 11-foot two point shot (Jalen Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Jalen Green HOU
10%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Kevon Looney GS
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Chris Paul GS
7%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
8%
Layup
6%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.8 5.1 4.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.0 8.7 5.9
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.2 5.0 3.6
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.2 4.2 8.9
5 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.3 3.9 2.3
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.2 6.7 1.6
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.9 4.7 1.7
8 Klay Thompson GS 12.9 3.3 2.2
9 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.8 3.4 1.4
10 Chris Paul GS 10.1 3.1 5.9
11 Dario Saric GS 9.7 5.4 1.8
12 Draymond Green GS 9.3 4.3 4.9
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.1 3.9 2.5
14 Jeff Green HOU 6.9 3.0 0.8
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.7 3.7 1.3
16 Kevon Looney GS 6.7 8.6 2.8
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.9 1.8 0.5
18 Moses Moody GS 5.9 2.7 1.0
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.0 1.6 1.5
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 3.8 2.8 0.5
21 Jock Landale HOU 3.5 2.5 0.9
22 Cory Joseph GS 2.5 0.9 1.5
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.4 1.3 0.4
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.1 0.6
25 Nate Hinton HOU 2.3 1.0 0.3
26 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.