NBA games

LAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
124–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC33332533124
SA2728222299

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SA
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 32 28 5 6
Kawhi Leonard S 28 21 4 3
Norman Powell 30 19 5 0
Daniel Theis 21 19 7 2
James Harden S 28 13 3 10
Russell Westbrook 25 10 2 6
Ivica Zubac S 22 8 11 0
Moussa Diabate 4 3 2 0
Bones Hyland 4 3 1 1
Terance Mann S 25 0 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson S 32 22 10 5
Cedi Osman 23 17 5 1
Zach Collins S 28 12 3 0
Tre Jones 23 11 2 5
Malaki Branham 21 10 0 1
Victor Wembanyama S 27 9 3 4
Jeremy Sochan S 29 8 8 1
Julian Champagnie S 23 5 4 1
Doug McDermott 14 3 2 2
Charles Bassey 18 2 12 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Victor Wembanyama · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"Victor Wembanyama makes 14-foot jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach Collins SA
12%
2 Paul George LAC
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 James Harden LAC
11%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
6 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
7%
10 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
26%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 24.7 5.8 4.2
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.2 5.5 3.9
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.4 10.4 3.2
4 James Harden LAC 19.3 5.1 5.2
5 Zach Collins SA 18.1 6.7 3.8
6 Keldon Johnson SA 16.8 5.7 3.9
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 16.0 6.7 5.2
8 Bones Hyland LAC 13.0 2.7 3.5
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 12.6 5.5 4.7
10 Norman Powell LAC 12.4 2.7 1.9
11 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.6 8.0 1.3
12 Tre Jones SA 9.9 3.2 5.2
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.9 2.0 2.2
14 Doug McDermott SA 7.4 1.4 1.8
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.8 4.0 2.1
16 Cedi Osman SA 6.3 2.3 1.4
17 Julian Champagnie SA 5.3 2.3 1.2
18 P.J. Tucker LAC 4.2 3.2 0.9
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.2 1.8 0.9
20 Devonte' Graham SA 3.9 1.4 1.4
21 Charles Bassey SA 3.6 3.4 0.8
22 Daniel Theis LAC 3.5 2.9 0.7
23 Dominick Barlow SA 3.5 1.6 0.6
24 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.4 3.0 0.4
25 Amir Coffey LAC 2.9 0.9 0.7
26 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.1 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.