NBA games

SAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
93129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC3122162493
NO29373429129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NO
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 30 16 4 0
De'Aaron Fox S 29 14 2 0
Domantas Sabonis S 31 10 10 8
Kevin Huerter S 23 10 0 3
JaVale McGee 13 10 7 1
Colby Jones 14 8 1 0
Malik Monk 24 8 0 5
Keegan Murray S 16 5 3 0
Jalen Slawson 12 4 3 2
Filip Petrusev 6 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 26 31 4 3
Zion Williamson S 30 26 3 5
Herbert Jones S 27 18 7 4
Naji Marshall 26 11 7 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 10 13 7
Jordan Hawkins 29 9 5 2
Cody Zeller 23 9 9 2
Jose Alvarado 15 5 0 3
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 12 4 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 25 3 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zion Williamson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Jonas Valanciunas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
3 Zion Williamson NO
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
6%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
6%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
6%
10 Harrison Barnes SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
30%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.4 4.9 6.2
2 Brandon Ingram NO 23.8 5.7 5.7
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.7 12.3 7.8
4 Zion Williamson NO 23.6 6.8 5.0
5 Malik Monk SAC 15.5 3.7 5.4
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 15.2 8.5 2.3
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 14.4 4.5 3.1
8 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.3 3.9 2.3
9 Keegan Murray SAC 13.8 6.0 2.5
10 Herbert Jones NO 11.9 4.2 2.6
11 Dyson Daniels NO 11.0 5.1 4.3
12 Harrison Barnes SAC 9.9 2.9 1.9
13 Naji Marshall NO 7.8 2.7 1.8
14 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.3 2.1 2.9
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.8 2.3 0.7
16 Colby Jones SAC 5.7 2.1 1.0
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.7 2.9 1.3
18 JaVale McGee SAC 5.6 4.0 0.8
19 Chris Duarte SAC 5.3 2.2 1.1
20 Larry Nance Jr. NO 3.6 3.3 0.7
21 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.4 1.8 0.8
22 Filip Petrusev SAC 3.0 2.0 0.8
23 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 2.8 0.9 1.0
24 Jalen Slawson SAC 2.5 1.9 0.7
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.3 2.5 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.