NBA games

NY @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
100–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY28281925100
MIN31273524117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIN
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 25 4 6
Julius Randle S 34 21 14 1
Immanuel Quickley 17 15 1 0
RJ Barrett S 22 14 7 1
Mitchell Robinson S 30 10 11 0
Donte DiVincenzo 26 7 3 5
Josh Hart 24 4 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein 14 2 4 0
Jericho Sims 3 2 1 0
Miles McBride 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 23 10 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 20 5 4
Rudy Gobert S 26 16 7 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 33 11 3 3
Mike Conley S 28 11 1 5
Naz Reid 18 10 3 1
Kyle Anderson 23 9 2 5
Shake Milton 14 6 5 4
Troy Brown Jr. 17 5 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 5 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 17-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
17%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 RJ Barrett NY
8%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
9 Mike Conley MIN
6%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.9 5.0 5.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 24.8 3.7 5.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 22.8 8.6 3.4
4 Julius Randle NY 22.1 8.5 5.3
5 RJ Barrett NY 21.3 4.1 3.5
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.1 3.6 3.2
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.5 11.0 1.5
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.1 2.8 1.6
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.8 4.8
10 Naz Reid MIN 9.9 3.4 1.1
11 Josh Hart NY 9.7 5.9 3.1
12 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.6 3.1 1.8
13 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.1 3.9 3.7
14 Quentin Grimes NY 7.0 1.6 1.1
15 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.9 10.2 0.8
16 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.1 2.0 2.0
17 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.6 4.7 1.0
18 Shake Milton MIN 5.5 2.0 1.1
19 Josh Minott MIN 3.3 1.4 0.8
20 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.1 1.6 0.5
21 Miles McBride NY 2.9 1.0 0.5
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.6 0.8 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 2.1 0.6 1.3
24 Jericho Sims NY 1.8 2.5 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.