NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
118–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA33322825118
CHI27262819100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 30 23 11 6
Duncan Robinson S 30 22 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 19 3 4
Jimmy Butler III S 29 16 3 6
Kevin Love 15 11 8 1
Josh Richardson 30 10 4 1
Kyle Lowry S 27 8 5 6
Haywood Highsmith S 20 7 2 3
Caleb Martin 21 2 4 2
Dru Smith 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 34 20 5 3
Nikola Vucevic S 32 18 8 2
DeMar DeRozan S 34 15 4 5
Zach LaVine S 35 13 3 5
Alex Caruso S 27 13 4 3
Patrick Williams 17 9 3 0
Ayo Dosunmu 12 6 2 1
Julian Phillips 2 2 1 0
Torrey Craig 16 2 1 0
Andre Drummond 14 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
6 Alex Caruso CHI
8%
7 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
8 Coby White CHI
8%
9 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
10 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
42%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.4 11.2 4.5
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.8 5.1 4.1
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.6 3.7 5.0
4 Zach LaVine CHI 21.3 5.1 4.5
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.3 10.2 3.6
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 15.9 3.3 3.5
7 Coby White CHI 13.1 3.0 4.3
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 11.0 3.8 2.2
9 Alex Caruso CHI 10.1 3.3 2.2
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.0 3.3 1.5
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 8.5 3.5 4.8
12 Josh Richardson MIA 8.3 2.7 2.5
13 Kevin Love MIA 6.8 5.4 1.7
14 Patrick Williams CHI 6.6 3.8 1.3
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.3 5.0 1.7
16 Andre Drummond CHI 6.3 6.7 0.9
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.2 2.2 2.8
18 Jevon Carter CHI 6.2 1.4 1.1
19 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 5.2 1.6 1.3
20 Caleb Martin MIA 4.9 2.3 1.2
21 Orlando Robinson MIA 4.8 3.0 1.5
22 Thomas Bryant MIA 4.1 3.2 0.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.1 1.0 0.3
24 Terry Taylor CHI 2.0 1.8 0.6
25 Dalen Terry CHI 1.8 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.