NBA games

MIL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
142–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL31393438142
WSH27383727129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home WSH
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 42 13 8
Damian Lillard S 33 22 5 7
Khris Middleton S 23 18 6 7
Bobby Portis 23 17 8 1
Brook Lopez S 32 16 9 1
Malik Beasley S 33 16 5 2
Cameron Payne 16 6 2 2
Pat Connaughton 26 3 4 4
AJ Green 15 2 2 1
Robin Lopez 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 33 30 1 1
Kyle Kuzma S 31 22 3 13
Tyus Jones S 26 18 2 3
Daniel Gafford S 29 14 5 2
Corey Kispert 21 12 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly 25 12 3 1
Landry Shamet 14 8 3 2
Deni Avdija S 31 7 4 2
Danilo Gallinari 18 4 2 3
Eugene Omoruyi 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
4 Deni Avdija WSH
11%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
8%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
8 Khris Middleton MIL
7%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
39%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.1 11.5 5.8
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.9 4.2 7.0
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.5 5.8 4.6
4 Jordan Poole WSH 15.9 3.3 4.2
5 Brook Lopez MIL 15.8 5.5 1.3
6 Deni Avdija WSH 15.6 5.5 3.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.6 6.7 1.8
8 Khris Middleton MIL 11.6 4.0 3.6
9 Malik Beasley MIL 11.0 3.9 1.5
10 Tyus Jones WSH 10.3 2.9 4.3
11 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.2 4.2 2.1
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.0 7.5 1.3
13 Corey Kispert WSH 9.8 2.5 1.9
14 Cameron Payne MIL 7.7 2.2 2.8
15 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.7 3.7 2.2
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.3 3.1 1.6
17 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 6.4 2.3 1.0
18 Landry Shamet WSH 6.0 1.5 1.2
19 AJ Green MIL 5.1 1.6 1.0
20 Johnny Davis WSH 5.1 2.2 0.8
21 Mike Muscala WSH 4.1 2.4 0.7
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.9 2.0 0.7
23 Ryan Rollins WSH 3.9 1.7 1.0
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.6 2.2 1.0
25 Anthony Gill WSH 3.0 1.8 0.8
26 Jared Butler WSH 3.0 1.4 1.3
27 Robin Lopez MIL 2.9 1.8 0.9
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.8 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.