NBA games

DEN @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
107–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27292526107
DET23322424103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DET
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reggie Jackson S 32 21 3 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 20 3 3
Christian Braun 32 15 6 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 14 11 2
Aaron Gordon S 37 11 9 7
Nikola Jokic S 15 9 5 5
Zeke Nnaji 14 7 1 0
Julian Strawther 15 4 2 2
Peyton Watson 13 4 1 2
Jalen Pickett 7 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 27 2 9
Marvin Bagley III S 26 18 8 1
Jaden Ivey S 30 17 4 3
Stanley Umude 18 11 1 2
Isaiah Stewart S 35 11 11 1
Ausar Thompson S 24 8 7 0
Isaiah Livers 23 6 4 1
Alec Burks 17 3 3 2
Marcus Sasser 5 2 0 0
James Wiseman 10 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
7 Killian Hayes DET
7%
8 Jaden Ivey DET
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
24%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.5 12.4 9.8
2 Cade Cunningham DET 23.8 4.4 7.5
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.8 6.5 1.7
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.7 7.9 4.3
5 Ausar Thompson DET 14.4 10.1 3.4
6 Reggie Jackson DEN 12.3 2.6 3.4
7 Jalen Duren DET 12.2 9.3 2.4
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.0 6.0 1.9
9 Killian Hayes DET 11.6 3.6 4.5
10 Alec Burks DET 11.4 3.0 2.2
11 Marcus Sasser DET 11.4 2.9 3.2
12 Jaden Ivey DET 11.2 2.9 2.9
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.1 2.2 2.8
14 Kevin Knox II DET 10.0 4.2 1.2
15 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.5 4.8 1.5
16 Christian Braun DEN 9.3 3.9 1.5
17 James Wiseman DET 5.9 3.5 0.8
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 5.3 2.6 1.0
19 Julian Strawther DEN 5.2 1.6 0.8
20 Peyton Watson DEN 5.2 2.4 0.9
21 Stanley Umude DET 4.8 2.1 0.7
22 Justin Holiday DEN 4.7 1.7 1.0
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.2 1.7 1.1
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.9 2.8 0.7
25 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.8 1.4 1.2
26 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 2.2 2.3
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.8 1.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.