NBA games

BOS @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
118–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS3134222110118
CHA2529272713121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHA
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 44 45 13 6
Payton Pritchard 33 21 6 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 17 8 0
Jaylen Brown S 34 13 4 3
Jrue Holiday S 37 11 6 5
Luke Kornet 19 4 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 9 3 0 0
Sam Hauser S 37 3 1 1
Oshae Brissett 17 1 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 41 36 9 8
Gordon Hayward S 39 20 5 4
Mark Williams S 33 18 16 2
P.J. Washington 28 15 1 1
Miles Bridges S 45 14 15 5
Brandon Miller S 40 9 7 4
Ish Smith 20 6 2 3
Bryce McGowens 14 3 2 2
JT Thor 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 16-foot jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Mark Williams CHA
12%
4 Gordon Hayward CHA
11%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
7 P.J. Washington CHA
10%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
36%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.4 8.6 4.9
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 25.8 4.9 8.2
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.7 5.1 4.1
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.8 6.5 2.7
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 16.0 4.7 4.5
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.9 7.4 5.9
7 P.J. Washington CHA 13.9 5.5 2.1
8 Mark Williams CHA 13.8 9.8 1.7
9 Brandon Miller CHA 13.7 4.3 1.9
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 3.3 1.3
11 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.9 3.2 3.2
12 Neemias Queta BOS 6.4 4.0 0.7
13 Theo Maledon CHA 5.4 1.9 1.8
14 JT Thor CHA 5.3 3.2 0.9
15 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.7 2.7 0.7
16 JD Davison BOS 4.5 1.8 3.0
17 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.4 1.6 0.9
18 Ish Smith CHA 4.3 2.0 1.6
19 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.2 1.3 0.6
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.2 1.6 0.8
21 Dalano Banton BOS 4.1 2.0 0.7
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.0 3.3 0.7
23 Luke Kornet BOS 3.4 3.2 0.5
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.8 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.