NBA games

HOU @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
104–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28272029104
LAL20293224105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 41 24 1 2
Alperen Sengun S 31 23 10 5
Fred VanVleet S 40 15 1 16
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 14 5 1
Jeff Green 14 13 2 0
Jalen Green S 31 9 6 3
Jae'Sean Tate 16 4 3 2
Tari Eason 17 2 5 0
Aaron Holiday 15 0 0 5
Jock Landale 4 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 40 37 6 8
Anthony Davis S 33 27 10 3
Austin Reaves 25 17 6 6
Rui Hachimura 32 11 4 2
Cam Reddish S 39 7 3 3
D'Angelo Russell S 24 4 5 2
Taurean Prince S 24 2 4 2
Jaxson Hayes 5 0 2 0
Christian Wood 18 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes dunk (Taurean Prince assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
18%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
10%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
7 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
37%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.8 8.5 6.7
2 Anthony Davis LAL 27.1 12.1 3.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 8.6 6.1
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 21.3 3.9 6.2
5 Jalen Green HOU 19.8 4.7 3.3
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 19.2 4.1 8.1
7 Austin Reaves LAL 15.9 5.3 5.5
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.1 4.1 2.3
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.4 6.7 1.5
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.4 3.5 1.2
11 Cam Reddish LAL 9.6 3.1 1.5
12 Taurean Prince LAL 9.3 2.3 1.3
13 Tari Eason HOU 8.3 6.4 1.2
14 Christian Wood LAL 7.3 6.1 1.3
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.8 3.8 1.3
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.1 3.1 0.8
17 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.0 1.7 0.5
18 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.5 3.6 3.7
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.1 1.8 1.4
20 Jock Landale HOU 4.4 2.6 1.1
21 Max Christie LAL 4.4 2.5 0.8
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.3 2.1 0.6
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.4 1.3 0.5
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.4 2.2 0.6
25 Nate Hinton HOU 2.3 1.0 0.3
26 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.