NBA games

OKC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
134–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33432533134
POR2122232591

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home POR
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 23 28 3 4
Chet Holmgren S 20 16 6 0
Isaiah Joe 14 15 1 1
Aaron Wiggins 16 13 5 1
Lindy Waters III 16 12 3 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 12 0 1
Tre Mann 24 7 5 2
Jaylin Williams 18 6 7 3
Josh Giddey S 23 6 4 5
Olivier Sarr 10 6 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 27 14 0 1
Jabari Walker 22 13 7 2
Skylar Mays S 26 11 2 7
Deandre Ayton S 24 11 5 2
Kris Murray 21 8 2 0
Shaedon Sharpe S 24 7 4 1
Justin Minaya 13 7 2 0
Toumani Camara S 15 6 2 0
Rayan Rupert 12 4 1 1
Duop Reath 12 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 1-foot driving dunk (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey OKC
15%
2 Jerami Grant POR
14%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
13%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
7 Skylar Mays POR
8%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Lindy Waters III OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.7 6.1 6.2
2 Jerami Grant POR 23.0 4.8 2.6
3 Chet Holmgren OKC 20.0 8.4 3.6
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.0 6.2 4.1
5 Josh Giddey OKC 16.4 6.6 4.8
6 Deandre Ayton POR 13.8 11.6 1.9
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.1 4.5 1.5
8 Skylar Mays POR 9.5 2.7 5.1
9 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.6 2.5 1.2
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.0 2.9 2.0
11 Toumani Camara POR 7.8 4.9 1.5
12 Matisse Thybulle POR 7.2 2.4 1.5
13 Duop Reath POR 6.8 3.1 1.4
14 Jabari Walker POR 6.4 4.4 0.9
15 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.8 1.7 4.1
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.5 3.9 1.3
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.5 2.9 2.3
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.2 1.7 0.9
19 Tre Mann OKC 4.1 1.7 1.1
20 Kris Murray POR 3.4 2.3 0.9
21 Jamaree Bouyea POR 3.4 2.2 0.9
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.3 1.0 0.4
23 Davis Bertans OKC 3.1 0.8 0.4
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.7 1.7 0.9
25 Moses Brown POR 2.6 3.0 0.3
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 2.5 3.2 0.4
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.1 1.0 0.6
28 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.