NBA games

PHX @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
140–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
PHX303124301213140
UTAH302628311210137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home UTAH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 46 39 8 10
Devin Booker S 40 26 5 8
Eric Gordon S 41 20 5 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 35 18 12 2
Grayson Allen S 43 14 4 3
Nassir Little 20 10 3 2
Keita Bates-Diop 23 6 1 1
Drew Eubanks 17 4 0 1
Josh Okogie 14 3 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 11 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 50 38 17 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 29 25 4 3
Jordan Clarkson S 39 22 7 5
Collin Sexton 23 18 5 2
John Collins S 43 15 12 0
Keyonte George S 34 7 5 11
Kelly Olynyk 20 6 5 5
Ochai Agbaji S 34 3 3 1
Simone Fontecchio 18 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 10-foot two point shot (Keyonte George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
13%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
13%
3 John Collins UTAH
12%
4 Devin Booker PHX
11%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Eric Gordon PHX
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
10 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
22%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 31.0 6.1 6.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.4 4.2 7.8
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.5 7.5 1.8
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 22.1 3.7 5.4
5 John Collins UTAH 16.1 7.7 1.6
6 Grayson Allen PHX 15.4 4.5 3.1
7 Eric Gordon PHX 15.2 2.7 3.3
8 Collin Sexton UTAH 12.6 2.9 4.0
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.8 7.9 5.0
10 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.0 3.5 4.8
11 Keyonte George UTAH 10.6 2.8 5.6
12 Drew Eubanks PHX 8.8 5.0 1.8
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.5 5.5 3.9
14 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.7 3.8 1.3
15 Josh Okogie PHX 6.7 2.7 1.2
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.4 3.3 1.9
17 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 6.3 3.3 1.2
18 Saben Lee PHX 6.2 1.6 2.1
19 Nassir Little PHX 5.3 2.0 0.9
20 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.0 2.0 1.0
21 Kris Dunn UTAH 4.6 1.9 2.5
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.2 2.0 0.9
23 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.0 1.2 0.6
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.8 2.0 0.5
25 Bol Bol PHX 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 2.7 1.5 0.4
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.0 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.