NBA games

BOS @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
102–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS26302323102
MEM27262324100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MEM
86% 14%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 34 26 8 1
Jayson Tatum S 35 20 9 5
Sam Hauser 22 15 4 0
Jaylen Brown S 34 12 6 3
Derrick White S 34 10 3 4
Jrue Holiday S 37 7 6 4
Payton Pritchard 15 7 3 1
Al Horford 22 5 3 2
Lamar Stevens 3 0 1 0
Neemias Queta 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 37 30 2 8
Santi Aldama S 39 28 12 6
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 17 8 1
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 13 6 2 1
Vince Williams Jr. 17 6 0 0
Ziaire Williams 24 6 7 4
Jacob Gilyard 15 3 2 5
Bismack Biyombo S 14 2 2 0
John Konchar S 26 2 5 3
David Roddy 20 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:53 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes driving dunk (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Bismack Biyombo MEM
10%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 John Konchar MEM
7%
10 Jacob Gilyard MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
45%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.5 8.2 4.3
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.3 4.7 5.1
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.8 5.2 3.9
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.0 6.0 2.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.0 6.7 2.6
6 Derrick White BOS 15.2 4.1 4.5
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 15.1 7.5 5.2
8 Santi Aldama MEM 12.5 5.3 2.0
9 Bismack Biyombo MEM 10.4 9.7 2.0
10 Sam Hauser BOS 10.3 3.5 1.2
11 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.8 5.1 1.6
12 David Roddy MEM 9.2 3.9 1.2
13 Neemias Queta BOS 8.3 4.9 0.9
14 Al Horford BOS 7.6 5.8 2.0
15 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.9 3.5 3.6
16 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.6 1.9 2.8
17 John Konchar MEM 5.1 3.6 1.5
18 Jake LaRavia MEM 4.6 1.8 0.6
19 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 4.5 1.8 1.1
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.2 0.5
21 Dalano Banton BOS 4.0 1.9 0.7
22 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 3.9 2.6 0.7
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.4 2.1 0.4
24 Luke Kornet BOS 3.3 3.2 0.5
25 GG Jackson MEM 3.3 0.7 0.3
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.7 2.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.