NBA games

SAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
129–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC35353722129
DAL36293117113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home DAL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 35 32 13 6
De'Aaron Fox S 31 30 4 7
Keegan Murray S 33 17 3 4
Chris Duarte S 33 13 8 4
Harrison Barnes S 34 12 4 6
Malik Monk 18 12 2 3
Sasha Vezenkov 13 7 1 1
JaVale McGee 9 6 7 1
Kessler Edwards 9 0 1 1
Colby Jones 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 25 10 7
Kyrie Irving S 33 23 2 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 14 2 2
Josh Green 26 11 4 5
Dante Exum 15 8 2 4
Grant Williams S 20 7 3 2
Richaun Holmes 5 7 2 0
Dereck Lively II S 29 6 9 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 6 2 0
Jaden Hardy 10 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Harrison Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Harrison Barnes makes 9-foot two point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
16%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
14%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
9 Grant Williams DAL
8%
10 Chris Duarte SAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
43%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.2 6.8 8.5
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.0 4.9 5.6
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.7 4.4 6.7
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.3 12.4 7.8
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.4 3.6 2.1
6 Malik Monk SAC 15.0 3.6 5.8
7 Keegan Murray SAC 14.1 6.4 2.3
8 Grant Williams DAL 11.1 3.6 1.8
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 9.8 2.9 1.4
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.7 4.4 1.6
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 9.3 7.6 1.5
12 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.1 1.8 2.4
13 Josh Green DAL 6.9 3.0 2.1
14 JaVale McGee SAC 6.6 4.0 0.9
15 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.8 2.3 0.7
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.6 3.9 1.5
17 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.6 1.3 1.0
18 Keon Ellis SAC 5.0 2.2 1.1
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.8 1.8 1.0
20 Colby Jones SAC 4.8 1.8 0.9
21 Dante Exum DAL 4.8 2.3 1.4
22 Filip Petrusev SAC 3.1 2.1 0.8
23 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.7 1.5 0.5
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.7 1.6 0.3
25 Markieff Morris DAL 2.5 1.0 0.5
26 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.8 2.5 0.3
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.7 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.