NBA games

DET @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
113–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET20252741113
TOR32373538142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home TOR
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stanley Umude 25 19 4 3
Cade Cunningham S 27 18 5 4
James Wiseman 24 15 3 1
Alec Burks 22 14 4 1
Marcus Sasser 21 9 1 6
Jaden Ivey S 28 9 3 4
Ausar Thompson S 30 9 10 2
Isaiah Stewart S 21 8 5 1
Kevin Knox II S 26 6 4 0
Marvin Bagley III 15 6 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 29 23 7 6
Gary Trent Jr. 26 18 1 3
Scottie Barnes S 25 17 7 9
Dennis Schroder S 26 17 2 7
Jakob Poeltl S 25 16 10 4
Chris Boucher 18 14 6 1
Precious Achiuwa 19 12 6 5
OG Anunoby S 27 9 5 3
Malachi Flynn 21 7 2 4
Gradey Dick 12 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jakob Poeltl · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jakob Poeltl makes 1-foot layup (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Dennis Schroder TOR
9%
6 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR
8%
8 Jalen Duren DET
8%
9 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
10 Killian Hayes DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 23.1 7.2 5.4
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.1 8.5 5.4
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.9 4.1 7.3
4 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.5 3.6 6.8
5 OG Anunoby TOR 15.3 3.9 2.2
6 Ausar Thompson DET 14.5 10.2 3.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.0 8.3 2.4
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.6 9.7 2.4
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.4 6.2 1.9
10 Killian Hayes DET 11.8 3.6 4.5
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.3 2.8 1.6
12 Marcus Sasser DET 11.0 2.9 2.8
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.9 5.2 1.4
14 Alec Burks DET 10.6 3.0 2.1
15 Kevin Knox II DET 10.5 4.3 1.2
16 Jaden Ivey DET 10.5 2.9 2.9
17 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.0 6.2 1.7
18 Chris Boucher TOR 7.0 5.2 0.8
19 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.9 2.3 2.5
20 Gradey Dick TOR 5.8 2.0 1.4
21 James Wiseman DET 5.1 3.8 0.7
22 Stanley Umude DET 4.3 1.9 0.6
23 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 4.1 2.4 0.6
24 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.0 1.6 0.6
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.